Thursday, June 19, 2014

Redemption (6/17/14)


It is widely accepted that winning never feels as good as losing hurts. But maybe that is not always true. 

After winning the NBA Championship Sunday night, several Spurs went out of their way to say that this wonderful season, and the way they dominated the Finals, made last year’s loss OK.  Essentially, last year’s defeat gave them a common pain.  That common paid bound the Spurs together in a common goal.  They decided to do everything they could to make this season’s ending different. Perhaps included in that was the desire to play so well that the Spurs would not lose on the sort of freak plays that led to the Game Six loss last year – which means not allowing close games.

As a result of that common goal, this year’s Spurs crushed teams in the playoffs.  It takes 16 wins to become NBA Champions.  In 12 of the Spurs 16 wins, the margin of victory was 15 or more.  The Spurs essentially eliminated the margin of error that leads to close losses.  One missed shot, funky bounce or bad call (or one Ray Allen step back three from the corner) doesn’t matter as much when you are winning by 20 points.

Sometimes teams win because of a fortuitous series of breaks mixed in with good plays.  Other times, teams dominate their opponents.  While the first type of win is great, the sense of satisfaction from the second type of win is priceless.  The Spurs after Game Five surely had the second feeling.  They could say “We are the best”  and “We gave it all we had” – and no one who watched this Series could dispute it. 

The Spurs, without preening or pounding their chests, looked genuinely happy, and that is a very good thing.  They didn’t need to preen or pound their chests.  They could just look up at the scoreboard, laugh, smile, hug and say meaningful things in each other’s ears.  And feel at peace.

Which makes next season’s betting line interesting.  The Heat, who were outscored by 70 in this five-game series, with everyone relatively healthy and available, are favored to win it all next year.   Ahead of the Spurs.  Are the Heat expected to be better next year, or are the Spurs expected to be worse? 

One thing I realized Sunday night was that while the Spurs are considered to be the “old” team, the Heat are no spring chickens.  When the Heat wanted to shake up their starting line-up for Game Five, they inserted Ray Allen into the line-up.  Yes, 38 year old Ray Allen, who is deciding whether to retire or not.  When the Heat changed their line-up to start the second half of Game Five, they replaced Rashard Lewis (34) with Birdman (35).  Of course, DWade is 32 going on 52.   With that in mind, here are the early betting lines for next season.

2014-2015 NBA FUTURES

(Courtesy LVH SuperBook)

Team
Odds
Heat
5-2
Thunder
9-2
Spurs
9-2
Clippers
10-1
Pacers
12-1
Bulls
12-1
Warriors
20-1
Rockets
20-1
Trail Blazers
30-1
Wizards
30-1

And there may be some logic in that analysis.  As with this year, the Heat will have a much easier road to the Finals next year too.  The Spurs, OKC and Clippers will need to overcome each other, along with other teams who would be top 2 or 3 in the East:  the Blazers, Warriors and Rockets.  Who do the Heat need to worry about in the East?  As long as Lebron stays, they will be odds-on favorites.

But enough about next year – the Spurs can revel in this moment, in this team, and what they accomplished now.  It will be a much more enjoyable summer than last year. 

Other thoughts and stolen stats:

1.       Stolen stats:

San Antonio's .528 shooting percentage was an NBA Finals record, but that doesn't tell the whole story of how well the Spurs shot the ball. They made 55 3-pointers -- more than any team has ever made in a Finals of fewer than seven games -- and shot them at a 46.6 percent clip.

Effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the additional value of 3s by treating them as 1.5 field goals, does a better job of capturing San Antonio's efficient shooting. The Spurs' 60.4 percent mark blew away the previous record (55.5 percent by the 2002 Lakers).”

2.        From my Game Four recap, talking about how Miami had only 48 points midway through the third quarter:

“The lead was back to 64 – 48, and then back to twenty at 68 – 48 halfway through the third.  Look at that second number.  48.  48 points, halfway through the third quarter, playing at home, in a must-win game in the NBA Finals.”

Who would have expected that Game Five would be worse – especially after the Heat scored 29 points in the first quarter? Halfway through the third quarter of Game Five, Miami had only 42 points – 6 points less than at the same time in Game Four.   And Game Five was an absolute “must win”.  Perhaps the Spurs can also defend.  Indeed, I don’t remember the Heat completing, or even attempting, one of their signature lob passes for a dunk.  The Spurs ran one lob play in the series – a play we used to call “Key”, which Pop stole from us.  Note how the Spurs clear the right side of the floor to open up the lob pass, one of the few they ever throw. 


The Heat had only 42 halfway through the third quarter of Game Five because the Spurs outscored the Heat 59-22 from 5:04 remaining in the first quarter until 5:01 left in the third.  That is almost exactly one-half of a game.  Which means if the teams played two halves at that scoring pace, the final score would be 118 – 44.  

Yes, 118 – 44

3.       Kawhi Leonard fouled out of Game Five.  I wonder if he is the first Finals MVP to foul out of the deciding game.  Also, people are talking about how he played much better in the last three games, which all turned into Spurs blow-outs.  Coincidentally, Pop changed the starting line-up in those games, replacing Splitter with Diaw.  Perhaps that change helped Leonard.  It spread the floor and gave him more room to operate – and added Diaw’s exquisite floor vision and passing ability.

4.       Any guesses as to which Spur played the most minutes Sunday night?  Boris Diaw.  In last year’s season ending fake blog, I wrote:

The Spurs aren’t dead? Not if Green adds another dimension to his game, Kawhi Leonard keeps up his Finals pace (22/11 in Game Six, 19/16 in Game 7), Parker stays healthy, and Boris Diaw does the Duncan diet this summer.

It turns out Diaw did enough of the Duncan diet to make my prediction last year come true.  (And Green added another dimension to his game, Kawhi resumed his 2013 Finals pace in Games Three, Four and Five, and Parker stayed healthy in the Finals.  Interestingly, the last one turned out to be the least important – Parker played OK, but was never the Spurs best player.)

5.       One of the best things about winning is that everyone on the winning team can feel like they contributed.  For the Spurs, a remarkable number of their players contributed in key ways – and not just the big 3, Leonard and Diaw.  Corey Joseph, who barely played in the Finals, helped the Spurs knock off OKC (in OKC) by playing the first 7 minutes of the second half of Game 6 when Parker was yanked for overall soreness and noodle ankles.  Mario Belinelli made the huge 3 in Game Three of the Finals after the Heat had cut the huge lead to only 7 in the third quarter – and came in Sunday night for a quick two minutes in the second quarter, and made a pump fake, step in jumper as the momentum was switching horses.  Patty Mills, after barely playing in last year’s Finals, was truly great in these FinalsThat included Game Five’s en fuego run demolishing the last hopes of the Heat.  (I really hope the Spurs can re-sign him.)  Tiago Splitter played great defense on Nowitzki and Lamarcus Aldridge in the first two rounds.  Speaking of redemption, Splitter also exorcised some personal demons from last year’s Finals with this block (double click on picture for GIF):


Speaking of highlights, I like this one too.


6.       I would be remiss not to mention Lebron’s first quarter Sunday night.  17 points/6 boards – he took the team on his back, and was awesome.  He was on a pace to score 68 points with 24 boards.  Sounds like something Wilt would do -- but the burden of carrying this Heat team clearly got too heavy for Lebron. 

Lebron has some huge decisions to make.  While I am sure he loves living in Miami (remember he grew up in Akron), I do not believe he can be enthusiastic about covering for DWade for the next two years, while Wade collects $20M each year for playing an abbreviated schedule.  Of course, Bosh will collecting the same amount, though he too is clearly no longer a “max” type player.

Lebron is also entitled to receive some criticism.  The commentators on ABC got in the habit of using a Pop phrase – don’t let the ball stick.  That means either pass, dribble or shoot – do not just hold the ball.  Lebron was surely the stickiest guy in the Finals.  On numerous occasions, the ball would be in his hands for half of the shot clock, either holding it against a defender or dribbling it in one spot.  The side effect of doing so is that the other Heat players would stop moving too.  (Laker fans have seen this scenario play out with Kobe many times.)  The ball needs to move – when it moves, players move.  (See, e.g., the Spurs.)

7.       In Game Five, the Heat had 5 offensive rebounds on 45 missed shots, a dreadful 11%.  This was a series long issue, and an important one.  For the Series, the Heat got an offensive rebound on only 15% of their misses.  (The Spurs were at 22.5%.) When the Heat missed, 85% of the time the Spurs rebounded the ball and attacked, feeding into their offensive dominance.  (Interestingly, when Kawhi Leonard rebounds, he almost always pushes the ball up court himself, with the guards sprinting ahead in order to spot up ahead of him.)  Another facet of the Heat’s lack of offensive rebounding is that they were not giving themselves second chance opportunities.  The lack of offensive rebounding probably grew out of the lack of ball movement – and the Heat’s decision to go without anyone who habitually would attack the offensive glass.  Lebron, Bosh, DWade, Lewis, Allen, and Chalmers led the Heat in minutes played.  Do you consider any one of them as a beast on the offensive glass?

8.       From music, soccer and Playing the Right Way maven Marc Cimino, after Game Five:

Somewhere on that court John Wooden, Red Holtzman and Dr. Jack were standing side by side with big smiles.    Big win for basketball!

9.       Bad news/Good news.  With 15 seconds left in the 3rd quarter of Game Five, Tony Parker finally made a basket after starting 0 for 10.  The other starting guard, Danny Green (who otherwise played a great series) did not score all game.  That’s the bad news.  The good news?  Parker’s basket put the Spurs up by 21 points.

The related good news is that Spurs 3rd guard, Patty Mills, scored 17 points in 17 minutes, including this flurry:

5:54
42-59
Patty Mills makes 25-foot three point jumper (Boris Diaw assists)
5:37
Chris Bosh makes layup (LeBron James assists)
44-59
5:28
44-62
Patty Mills makes 25-foot three point jumper (Manu Ginobili assists)
5:09
LeBron James misses 14-foot two point shot
44-62
5:07
44-62
Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound
5:01
44-65
Manu Ginobili makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)
5:01
Heat 20 Sec. timeout
5:01
Michael Beasley enters the game for Dwyane Wade
44-65
5:01
Mario Chalmers enters the game for Ray Allen
44-65
5:01
Shane Battier enters the game for Udonis Haslem
44-65
4:39
LeBron James makes jumper
46-65
4:18
46-65
Manu Ginobili misses 13-foot jumper
4:16
Michael Beasley defensive rebound
46-65
4:09
Mario Chalmers makes layup (Michael Beasley assists)
48-65
4:07
Spurs Full timeout
3:42
48-68
Patty Mills makes three point jumper (Tiago Splitter assists)


Man, that was fun. The Heat scored 6 points in 90 seconds (an explosion for them).  The Spurs scored 12 on four of five shots over about two minutes  -- including 9 points on 3 threes in 53 seconds.  (Interesting side-note:  Pop called an “angry time-out” after the Chalmers lay-up which cut the lead to 17.  That time-out led to the final Mills three – “Three from Down Under!!”) --- (Second side-note:  It truly was a Three from Down Under – the pass was from a Brazilian to an Aussie.  )---  (Third side-note:  Am I the only one who notices these things?)

10.   I ended last year’s finals in a much worse mood.  As I said then, losing close hurts more than losing by a lot, and losing close and badly (like the Spurs did last year) hurts worst of all. 

But I am taking a lesson from the Spurs -- I am now over that.  2014 has cleared the books on the 2013 Finals. 

11.   And like One Shining Moment at the end of the NCAA Final Four, I will end once again with “My Favorite Things”  (updated from last year):

In the meantime, I will spend the dog days of summer thinking back on my favorite NBA memories. This list grew out of a question from masters division hoops multi-time champion Steve Carlston about my favorite players. In my lawyerly way, I instead answered the question I wanted to answer – about favorite memories. Like these:

Coop in a defensive stance, Stephen Curry looking for any opening to shoot a 3, Magic in the middle dishing this way – no, that way, Patty Mills water-bugging to find himself an open three, Horry spotting up in the last minute of a playoff game, Kawhi Leonard D’ing up on LeBron, or Durant, or Westbrook, or whoever else Pop sends him after, Kyle Korver running around 4 screens to get free for a catch and shoot 3, Kobe leading an improbable comeback, Manu dunking on the Heat in Game Five of the Finals, DFish bellying up on a guy bigger faster quicker and more talented, Boris Diaw as a Swiss Army Knife (or a French one), Nash dancing around a ball screen, Donald Sterling being forced to sell the Clippers, Jerry West dribbling hard right and pulling up for a jumper, Walton rebounding and outletting, Wilt finger-rolling, Parker tear-dropping, Rick Barry underhanding, Bosh bricking, Dirk step-backing, Earl the Pearl spin-dribbling, Pistol Pete (or Ricky Rubio) behind-the-back passing, Kevin Durant nothing-but-netting, Chick Hearn hyper-ventilating, Dr. J dunking, Popovich angry time-outing, Worthy baseline spinning, Westbrook attacking, Duncan blocking a shot and controlling it, Stockton pocket passing, Lebron chasing down a seemingly uncontested breakaway lay-up – and in honor of this Team Victory: the Spurs making five passes in six seconds to get a good shot (and then throwing one more pass to get a great shot).

Yes, these are a few of my favorite things. So is writing this fake blog. Feel free to suggest your own. Thanks again for following along.



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