If you can't stand the Heat, get out of the kitchen: Game One 2014 (6/6/14) [UNDER CONSTRUCTION]

One thing I haven’t heard mentioned anywhere about Game 1:  17,000 Texans and 24 sweating athletes in a confined space with no air conditioning. 

Wow, it must have stunk.

What also stunk was the commentary of Mark Jackson, former (thankfully) coach of my Golden State Warriors, and now back in the booth.  When Lebron first pulled himself out of the game with cramps in the 90 degree heat, Jackson (who I don’t think is an actual doctor) suggested that Lebron needed to tell his body that this was a big game and get back in the game. 

Wouldn’t it be nice to live in Jackson’s world, where physical maladies could be commanded to disappear:  “Devil, be gone!”  That only works with coaches, something Warrior ownership did at the end of the season: “Jackson, be gone”.  And so it was.

Would the outcome of the game been different if Lebron had Jackson’s gift of auto-cure and not totally cramped up at the 3:59 mark of the fourth quarter?  Impossible to know, but there are several indications that it would not have changed the outcome.

First, while Lebron was on the floor, his plus/minus was actually zero.  Second, when Lebron left, the Heat was down two, on the road, and the Spurs had the ball, so the Heat was already an underdog.   Third, Danny Green (who Lebron would not have been covering anyway) had already heated up, as had the rest of the Spurs.  Finally, this is what happened in the two minutes that followed. The play that may have sealed the deal was Ray Allen’s missed three pointer (he made his first three 3s, then missed his last five):

3:59	Rashard Lewis enters the game for LeBron James	92-94
3:59		92-94	Tony Parker enters the game for Patty Mills
3:49		92-97	Danny Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Manu Ginobili assists)
3:31	Dwyane Wade misses jumper	92-97
3:30		92-97	Tim Duncan defensive rebound
3:24		92-99	Boris Diaw makes layup (Manu Ginobili assists)
3:02		92-99	Manu Ginobili personal foul (Mario Chalmers draws the foul)
3:00		92-99	Tony Parker personal foul (Mario Chalmers draws the foul)
2:46	Mario Chalmers makes three pointer	95-99
2:26		95-99	Tim Duncan bad pass
2:08	Ray Allen misses 24-foot three point jumper	95-99
2:06		95-99	Tim Duncan defensive rebound
1:49		95-99	Tony Parker misses layup
1:49		95-99	Tim Duncan offensive rebound
1:49	Dwyane Wade loose ball foul (Tim Duncan draws the foul)	95-99
1:49		95-99	Kawhi Leonard enters the game for Danny Green
1:43		95-102	Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tony Parker assists)

So, while the Spurs clearly pulled away after Lebron left, the way things played out could have happened similarly even in Lebron was on the floor:  Green would likely have made the three to put the Spurs up 5, Wade would have missed his jumper (he was clearly dragging down the stretch) – and Allen (also dragging) couldn’t have been much more open if there had been 4 Lebrons on the court, all of whom would have passed the ball to the wide-open Ray Allen.  

Perhaps more interesting is why Lebron, and only Lebron, cramped up.  Everyone else was tired, and more so with the conditions.  But the Spurs were clearly fresher down the stretch.  Perhaps they are more used to the smell of 17,000 sweaty Texans.

Other comments:

1. While Lebron’s plus/minus was zero, the Spurs second Frenchman (Boris Diaw) was an unheard of +30 during his time on the floor.  Yes, in the 33 minutes Diaw played, the Spurs outscored the Heat by 30.  Including this pass that got Green started (double click on the picture for GIF):

1. My man Manu was similar – Manu was +22 during his 32 minutes on the floor, largely as a result of his 11 assists.  Like Ray Allen, Manu made his first three 3s, and missed his last three.  The difference is that Manu filled the stat sheet with other stuff too – the assists, 5 boards, 3 steals and only two turnovers.  His low number of turnovers was totally unlike the rest of the Spurs.  I think the 90 degree temperature made it difficult to distinguish the red uniforms from the white ones.  Hence, 22 turnovers, 9 in the third quarter alone.  When the Spurs stopped throwing the ball to the red shirts, they had more opportunities to shoot the ball.  Which is a good thing.  Especially when you shoot 59% from the floor, including 13 for 25 from three – for an effective shooting percentage of 69% (because, you know, threes count more than twos).
2. I wondered before the game whether the Spurs would play much with Duncan and Splitter on the floor together.  Short answer:  Nope.  They were together for only 8 of the 48 minutes.  Essentially, the first 4 minutes of each half.  But Splitter still contributed (unlike last Finals).  He gave the Spurs good minutes when Duncan was on the bench, especially a never before seen 9 points in a row bridging the 3^rd and 4^th quarters.   Just as importantly, he allowed Duncan to get valuable minutes on the bench, presumably drinking Gatorade, and not Powerade:

Ryan Koo@ryanbkoo

Hey @Gatorade where's all your sports science magic for preventing cramps in your no. 1 client @KingJames?

  

Gatorade ✔@Gatorade

@ryanbkoo The person cramping wasn't our client. Our athletes can take the heat.

4.      Another interesting stat from the game:  San Antonio Spurs had 30 assists on their 40 baskets.  Miami “Can’t Handle the” Heat had only 16 assists on their 37 baskets.  (Last year, the Spurs had assists on 60% of their baskets in Games 1 – 5, when they went up 3 – 2, but fell to 38% in Games 6 and 7 – largely because Parker was hurt and unable to generate much offense or push the ball up court.)  Another thing to watch for!  Assist percentage.

5.      The point about Parker’s health in last year’s Finals is key.  Will he stay healthy this time?  Will Manu and DWade?  And will Lebron have any lingering effects from his cramp-out in Game 1?  The extra day of rest between Games 1 and 2 will help. 

6.       The good news is that the Spurs’ crack electrical engineers, who successfully sabotaged the Heat in Game One with the AC malfunction, have apparently “fixed” that “problem”. Game 2 should be played in better conditions for all.  It will certainly smell better.  Go Spurs.