Sunday, December 14, 2014

How to coach youth basketball

I coached college basketball for 8 years at Claremont McKenna College in California.  http://www.cmsathletics.org/sports/mbkb/index When I left college coaching to focus on my legal career, I didn't want to stop cold turkey.  Luckily, my son Pablo had just turned 11, and his city league team needed a coach.  I was able to coach Pablo for the next two years, and he ultimately became an all-conference player at Santa Monica High, and then played JC and college ball.  Pablo continues to play today, as do I.
The ultimate goal of coaching young kids is to teach them enough about the game that they will be able to play wherever they go - whether it be for school teams, intramurals at college, city leagues, or just Saturday morning pick-up games.  If youth league coaches are really lucky, like I have been with Pablo, they can eventually win city league championships playing on the same team with their sons.  When Pablo was 20, he pushed the ball up court after a rebound, kicked it me on the wing, and my three-pointer went down at the buzzer - we won the championship by a point.  Pablo and I will always have that memory.
With all that in mind, these are a few of my thoughts on coaching young players.
1.       Be organized. The scourge of all coaching at every level is limited practice time.  This is doubly true with youth teams.  As a result, you must maximize the time you have with your team - which means being organized.  Spend time before practice mapping out a practice schedule.  Write down that schedule, detailed to the minute.  Be free to deviate slightly if you haven't accomplished what you wanted, but stick to the basic outline. 
Always arrive early - before practice is a great time to interface with your players.  Start practice with something fun that gets the heart pumping.    Especially with younger kids, move from one thing to another to keep their minds engaged.  Most importantly, before starting something, explain it simply but well.  Practice drills often involve rotating the players:  Have a system - we generally went offense to defense, defense off. Which means an individual player or group will play offense first, then defense, then rest.  But minimize the "rest" part - keep them moving.  Remember:  you have limited practice time.  Don't rush, but be efficient with that time.
2.       Get an assistant coach, or be one. If you have an assistant coach, or are one, split the coaching duties during practice so the two coaches are not watching the same thing.  The simplest way to do it is to have one coach be in charge of offense, while the other coaches the defense.  And switch it up so the players hear from different voices.  If you have enough space for practice, you can also have one coach work with one group on shooting, while the other coach works on ball-handling and passing - and then trade groups. 
In games, the assistant coach should be totally in charge of at least one thing.  In college, I had my assistant handle player substitutions for the first 35 minutes of the game.  It gave him authority, and freed me to focus on the rest of the game.  If you are the assistant coach, do not watch the ball during the game.  Your job is to see whether players are boxing out or hitting the offensive board, determine who is tired, and watch which players are running back on defense - or not.  You can't do that if you are ball watching all the time. 
3.       Spacing. After I stopped coaching Pablo when he went to high school, I transitioned to coaching super-daughter Alissa as she played youth soccer.  She ultimately became a very good high school player. 
Not knowing much about soccer, I was the assistant coach.  I discovered that I was pretty good at it for two reasons. 
First, I could really run a practice.  Eight years of coaching college basketball meant I had been involved in coaching about a gazillion practice drills.  As a result, I was able to conquer point one above - organizing and running a practice. 
Second, basketball and soccer are similar in the importance of spacing.  Kids' sports break down into a giant amoeba moving around the court (or field) when all the players congregate on the ball.  Watch a good basketball team play, at any level, and you will see that there at least two players, sometimes three, on the weak side of the floor.  That forces the defense away from the ball, and allows the offense to change sides of the floor with the ball. 
4.  Move the ball from side to side. In a related note, all the studies we did at Claremont showed that our offensive efficiency soared when the ball changed sides at least twice before shooting - and that is only possible if the floor is spaced properly.  The Spurs must believe the same, which is why the ball often goes from one side to the other, and then back again.  One way to do this, especially with younger players, is to designate players to run up one side of the floor or the other.  Even in college, our fast break would assign our shooting guard the right side, and the small forward the left. 
Even if you need to tape Xs on the floor (during practice), make sure to have your players spread out - and then make sure the ball goes from side to side.  That also gets everyone involved - all players want to touch the ball, which is why they instinctively gravitate towards it.  If you can teach your players they are more likely to get to touch the ball by being on the opposite side of the floor, you will have done well.
5..      Do NOT full court press all the time. Coaches love to have their junior teams full court press.  Especially against weak opponents, it leads to a bunch of steals, and easy lay-ups.  It also doesn't teach your players very much about actually playing basketball.  They never need to learn a half-court offense, since they steal the ball and get a lay-up - or give up a lay-up at the other end once they play better teams.  As a result, the players don't learn to play half-court defense either - defending the pick and roll, etc.  Remember that the goal of youth basketball is to teach the players how to play the entire game, not just how to trap and get steals.  
While you can win games with full court presses, and it is something to spend part of a practice teaching, in my opinion doing it all the time is counter-productive to the goal of youth basketball.  And good teams will chew it up.
One of the highlights of my coaching career was coaching Pablo's 12-year old all-star team against a powerhouse travelling team from Westchester.  The Westchester had several future Division 1 and NBA players on it, and had crushed all the other teams with their full court press, averaging about 100 points per game.  After we consistently broke their press for lay-ups, they called it off.  While they had averaged almost 100 points per game before that, we held them to 50.  My guys knew how to play basketball.
6.       Don't teach them plays, teach them how to play. Before one of my city league games, I arrived early and observed a young coach working with his team of 14 year olds.  They were running 5 on 0 in-bounds plays from the side court.  He had four different side-bound plays, and they ran them over and over again.  In my eight years of coaching, we had one play for taking the ball out on the side court.  It worked just fine.  That young coach should have spent the valuable time working with his players on shooting, passing, setting screens, helping on defense, and contesting shots without fouling.  Those skills will last forever - his four side-bound plays will be forgotten.
This is not to say that you should have zero plays, except with the very young players.  You should have one simple play out-of-bounds under the basket, and perhaps one or two out of the half-court set.  Learning how to execute a play is part of the skill set players will need growing up.  Just don't waste too much precious practice time learning plays at the expense of learning how to play.
7.       Play man-to-man defense, not zone. For the same reasons as in the previous section, play man-to-man if your league allows it.  Players who learn to play man-to-man can easily later learn to play in a zone.  The converse is not true.
Also, playing man-to-man allows the chance to teach your players both to cover their own man, and to get into help position when their man doesn't have the ball.  An expression I found helpful to teach younger players off the ball the concept of helping on defense:  "Get ready to help". 
Surprisingly, I found players more receptive to playing good team defense in a man-to-man alignment than in a zone, where they are taught to defend an area, not the other team.  And since the goal is to stop the other team from scoring, whoever actually puts the ball in the basket, players must learn team concepts on defense as early and as often as possible.
8.       Coach - don't referee. Every moment you spend arguing with the referees is a moment you are not coaching.  You are also teaching your young players that losses can be blamed on others.  In youth basketball, the referees are often doing it as a way to stay connected to the game - let them enjoy doing that. 
One simple way is have good interactions with the referees is easy:  Learn their names.  Nothing is less effective in communicating with an official than calling him "Ref".  And using their name helps remind you that "Jim" or "Steve" is an actual person, not just a referee.  Watch Pop on the sidelines - 90% of the time, he is having a conversation with the officials, because he knows them.
9..  Have fun. By your own example, teach your young players that basketball is fun.  Put another way, avoid being one those coaches who suck all the fun out of the game.  If you are deadly serious while coaching, your young players will find it difficult to have fun.  Conversely, if you have fun while coaching, your players will too.   Coach like you like doing it.
Let everybody play, and let everybody start a game every once in a while.  Above all, stay positive - it is only a game.  At least it is until it also becomes a business, but that can wait.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Happy Thanksgiving to Spurs fans

In last year's NBA Finals against the Heat, Game 4 was a rerun of Game 3 - a Spurs blow-out win.  And because it was a repeat (but without the suspense - Miami never made a run), I wrote a blog entry entitled "Reruns", with all the negative connotations.
In essence, Game 4 could be considered boring, even for those of us on the "winning side".  I closed out the Game 4 blog with the following:
I taped last night's game, so I could play in my own game from 7:30 - 9:30{PDT}. On the way to the gym, I stopped in a store to pick something up. Also in the store was Rudy Tomjanovich, former Houston Rocket and Los Angeles Laker coach (and great player). I said "Hi, Coach!" (Ex-coaches are still called ‘Coach' just like ex-heavyweight champions are always called ‘Champ'.)  As I walked out, not knowing the score of the game (I was taping it and in a self-imposed media blackout), I wondered why Rudy T, a basketball lifer, was not watching the game. Today I figured it out. He had probably watched the first quarter and could tell that the Spurs were going to win -- and decided to go to the store for something to eat for when he went back home to watch Gilligan Island reruns.
Fast forward to last month.  I went to the local driving range to hit a bucket of golf balls after work.  In the stall next to me?  Rudy T. Rudy was hitting the ball much further than I was.
When we both took a break from hitting, I asked if I could talk to him about something.  I told him he wouldn't remember me or our brief meeting during Game 4, but something bothered me.  I wondered after our meeting why the great Rudy T, a basketball lifer, was not even watching an NBA Finals game. Was he no longer interested in NBA basketball? He laughed about it,said that he still has all his passion for the game, and indeed still consults with the Lakers - but that he can't stand all the commercials during the game.  He was in the store during last year's Game 4 because he was doing what I was doing:  taping the game for later.
I asked if he had been rooting for the Spurs, and he said yes.  He also said that everything he has heard about the Spurs, including from Rudy T's former Rockets assistant Jim Boylen (now with the Spurs), was that the Spurs players and staff are really "good people".
Not all fans cheer for teams that are comprised of "good people".  Not that long ago, Patriot fans were rooting for Aaron Hernandez, Eagle fans were rooting for Michael Vick, Raven fans were rooting for Ray Rice.  Next baseball season, New York Yankee fans will have to decide whether to boo or applaud A-Rod who's returning from a drug ban. In the NBA, until this summer's events, Clipper fans knew their team was owned by Donald Sterling, and had to hold their nose knowing where their ticket money was going.  Laker fans previously had to deal with Kobe Bryant's rape allegation in Colorado - at times, he would fly back from court appearances in Denver in order to play in that night's playoff game.
These problems extend even into the colleges.  The best player on defending national champion Florida State is still the subject of an ongoing sexual assault inquiry, and was arrested on other charges over the summer.  University of North Carolina athletes have recently  been charged with skating on their classes for years.
Especially in light of everything going on in the sports world, I loved to hear Rudy T's comments about the team we all root for.  He used the words "good people".  Among all the things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving, the list includes the ability to cheer on a Spurs team that is a group of good people.  Not everyone can say that, but we can. Happy Thanksgiving, Spurs nation.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

LeBron, the Spurs, and ruined homecomings

When Lebron James and his Super Friends embarked on their team-building exercise in Miami, they created the squad that everybody loved to hate. From the poorly planned "Decision" announcement to the arrogant prediction of multiple rings, non-Heat fans across the nation enjoyed cheering for whoever was playing the Heat. In the Heat's first Finals appearance they faced the Dallas Mavericks. Even though that team was owned by Mark Cuban, who was widely unpopular, and starred a big German, most of America wanted the Mavs to win.  This antipathy toward the Heat in general, and Lebron in particular, largely grew out of the idea that Lebron, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh had somehow "gamed the system" by conspiring to create the Big Three.
Fair or not (after all the Spurs have their own Big Three), this dislike of Lebron continued for many.  In the last two Finals, much of America rooted for a team many had found "boring" over the years - the Spurs.  Of course, the "boring old Spurs" reputation did not apply to this version of the Spurs. (Well, maybe the "old" part.)
In many ways,  it is somewhat sad that the transcendent talent in the league carries this burden.  Unlike other superstars who were considered difficult teammates (Michael Jordan and Kobe, for instance), players love to play with Lebron.  He plays hard and unselfishly, and enjoys hitting a teammate with a pass as much as scoring the basket himself.  Not only is he unselfish on the court, he is good at it.  He knows when to deliver the pass, and his strength and vision allow him to actually deliver the ball from virtually anywhere on the court.  For this reason, shooters flock to play with Lebron.
On defense, Lebron is willing to cover anyone on the other team.  And, like his passing, he does it extremely well.  He has shut down opposing point guards and power forwards, and everyone in between. As just one example, in both of the last Finals, he was the Heat's best defender on Tony Parker.  Further, Lebron's ability to chase down and block what looks like a break-away lay-up is unprecedented.  From a coaching standpoint, having your best player also be your hardest working player is a rare and wonderful gift.   From a fan's standpoint, Lebron is exactly the type of player you should be rooting for  -- supremely talented, extremely hard-working, unfailingly unselfish.  Yet we did not.  The hubris of the Big Three made it impossible for most of us to root for this wonderful player.
All of that seemingly changed with his "second" decision.  When Lebron announced this summer that he was opting out of his contract, and going home to Cleveland, even the Grinch's heart softened towards Lebron.   The decision was not announced in a fake "interview" like the first one.   It was an open and well-written letter announcing "I'm Coming Home." The letter talked about Lebron's desire to bring a championship to his home state, and mentoring Cleveland's young players while doing it.  He talked about the challenge and how nothing is given to you - you have to earn it.
Talk about "unselfish" - he gave up South Beach for Cleveland!  Yes, the same Cleveland whose river famously caught fire. Even long-time Lebron despisers could understand wanting long suffering Cleveland fans to finally win a championship, something denied them in every sport since 1964.  That is a long time ago - LBJ was president, we were five years from landing on the moon, and the Beatles were the hip new band.
However, something happened to change those good feelings towards Lebron.  People started to notice that the "I'm Coming Home" letter announcing his return - and promising to mentor the young Cavs -- failed to mention Andrew Wiggins, the first pick in the NBA draft.  It also failed to mention last year's number one pick Anthony Bennett. Something smelled fishy in Cleveland - and not just the river.
Then, it happened. The Cavs traded those two unmentioned number one picks for uber power forward Kevin Love.  Rumors abounded that this was all pre-arranged, and part of the decision to "come home" was instead a repeat of the prior decision.  The more people looked at it, they more they decided Lebron had made the selfish decision to simply create a new Big Three.  Instead of being saddled with an aging and overpaid Dwayne Wade, an overrated and overpaid Chris Bosh, and an aging Heat roster, Lebron looked around for the best situation for Lebron.
Lebron surely remembered Game Five of the Finals.  After being blown out by the Spurs in Games Three and Four, Eric Spoelstra shook up the starting lineup - by starting 38-year old Ray Allen. When the Heat changed their line-up to start the second half of Game Five, Spoelstra replaced Rashard Lewis (34) with Chris "Birdman" Anderson (35). And after the Heat's hot start, the Spurs out-scored the Heat 59-22 from 5:04 remaining in the first quarter until 5:01 left in the third.
Lebron has a brilliant basketball mind.  He saw what happened in the Finals, and must have known that Miami's roster was not getting younger or better. The Cavs roster was.  And while Lebron's letter talked about taking on the "challenge", that challenge was much easier knowing Kevin Love was on the way.
So he decided to walk away from his Miami Heat team, his Miami Heat teammates, and a Miami Heat fan base that had showered him with adoration when the rest of the country was treating him like a villain.  His escape from Miami happened to take him "home", which was convenient and made for a good story.  But it appeared to many, including this writer, that the driving force behind this second "decision" was his ability to re-create what was fading in South Beach - a new and younger Big Three, with Kyrie Irving already there, and Kevin Love on the way.
With his newly created Big Three, Lebron is trying to "go home again."  Unfortunately, the way he did it left the same sour taste as his first Big Three.  If "going home" includes the NBA fan base cheering for him, Lebron may never make it there.

Friday, November 14, 2014

San Antonio and Los Angeles: A Tale of Two Cities

A Tale of Two Cities

A major difference between professional and college sports is the need for college teams to constantly re-invent themselves. This is one reason many people believe John Wooden's string of NCAA championships is more impressive than the Celticsdynasty. Wooden won with the go-go teams of Goodrich and Hazzard, the Lew Alcindor centered teams, the powerful forward combo of Sidney Wicks and Curtis Rowe, the Bill Walton teams, and finally the Richard Washington and Marques Johnson team as Coach Wooden's swan song. The Celtics? They had Bill Russell throughout, and were coached by Red Auerbach for all except the last championship. Similarly, the Bulls 6 championships all had the same core - Jordan and Pippen, coached by Phil Jackson.

That does not mean that NBA dynasties are easy. Indeed, maintaining that core is exceedingly difficult - which brings us to the Lakers and Spurs, who meet tonight in Los Angeles. In Thursday's L.A. TimesKobe Bryant talked about the Spurs, and how his contemporaries have had a different and more stable path:
"I am extremely jealous of that.  I don't know if I can express to you how jealous I am of the fact that Tim, Tony, Manu and Pop have been together all those years."
Unlike the Spurs, Kobe's Lakers have cycled through numerous cores, coaches, and owners.  Even the two Laker three-peats had different core groups - the first keyed by Kobe, Shaq, Rick Fox, and Robert Horry, the second keyed by Kobe, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom.  Despite the success Kobe has enjoyed in his long career, he has good reason to be jealous of the Spurs' stability, especially with his present group of teammates -- the teammates he will likely finish his remarkable career with.
Compare that to the Spurs, who despite not having a pick in the top 20 since they got TD, have kept the same successful core together over the years (Kawhi Leonard was a top 20 pick, but technically came via trade).  Part of that is the type of personality that the Spurs core represents.  Dare I say that TD, Tony and Manu are easier to play with than Kobe?  Also crucial to the Spurs' stability is the acumen of the front office in filling the other 12 spots on the roster.
As a result, the Spurs' fan base are invested in monitoring the top of the standings:  Will the Spurs have the best record in the West?  Did the Cavs win last night?  Every loss by Cleveland helps when looking ahead to the potential of home court advantage in the Finals.
What do Laker fans look at now? If they are smart (and want the Lakers' top-5 protected pick to stay in L.A. instead of going to Phoenix) they watch the dregs of the league. Laker fans should cheer every time another lottery bound teams win a game. True Laker fans now root for the 76ers, the Magic, the Nuggets and theJazz

As Dickens said: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times". As a Laker fan at heart, and a converted Spurs fans in my soul, I'm sure that Dickens had it exactly right.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

What I learned about the Spurs while watching the Clippers broadcast

My law firm handled last summer's sale of the Clippers to Steve Ballmer.  We also successfully handled the ensuing trial between Shelly and Donald Sterling, defeating Donald Sterling's attempt to invalidate that sale. That might have been the one case in which everyone was rooting for one side (Shelly) against the other (Donald).  We were happy to be on the good side of that one.
Even though I didn't work on the case (though much of my firm did), I was hoping I could score some firm tickets for last night's game.  I even promised not to wear my #20 Ginobili road jersey, since Manu would be wearing it already - wouldn't want any confusion about who was to play.  Alas, I struck out and didn't tickets for the game.
Instead, I went home, planning to watch the game on my new NBA League Pass. I hoped to watch the game on the Spurs network -- but I was foiled again.  Local blackout rules barred me from watching anything except the local Clipper feed.  Of course, this meant I was stuck with commentary focused on how the Clippers were doing in the game, not the Spurs.  Nonetheless, there was some interesting commentary about the Spurs which I though the PtR nation might find interesting.
First, the Clippers color man Mike Smith can't pronounce Manu's first name. According to Smith, the first syllable rhymes with the first syllable of Kansas.  Man - u, not Mahn - u.   Made me crazy.
Second, when the game turned into a defensive half-court slog, the Clippers announcers decided that played into the Spurs hands, since "the Spurs don't like to push the ball up court".  I don't know what Spurs team these guys have been watching the past few years, but the announcers were clearly living in the past.
Third, on a play down the stretch where Tony Parker was tackled by a Clipper defender, the Clipper announcers decided there was no contact at all - even after watching the replay.  From my view, I would have called the foul, and tacked on 15 yards for face-masking.
Finally, I never heard them address the most interesting match-up of the night -  Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs small forward, covering the consensus best point guard in the game, Chris Paul.  Of course, that match-up led to one of the key plays of the game when Kawhi stole the ball as CP3 attempted a cross-over dribble late in the game.

Kawhi Leonard's steal: play of the game. https://vine.co/v/OinU9hWrg2X 

There were some insightful comments too.  The Clipper announcers were smart enough to discuss the fact that Tim Duncan's per minute production has remained remarkably consistent over the years.  Next, in discussing all the future hall of famers on the floor (including the two coaches), they asked whether they should start including Kawhi  in the discussion.  Good question.  In the same vein, they decided (correctly) that the Big Three has really become the Big Four, with Kawhi as the fourth Musketeer.  They followed that up with another good observation:  In the last two NBA Finals, the Big Four has become the Big Five, with Danny Green joining the fun.  Another good point.
So, all in all, a fascinating night watching the Spurs on the enemy network.  After the quick trip up the coast to play the Warriors tonight, I assume the Spurs will come back to L.A. to stay at the beach before Friday's game against the Lakers.  After all, L.A. temperatures will be in the 70s all week.  If things go well, I will get a ticket to the Spurs - Lakers game Friday night.  Sitting in Staples Center surrounded by the Laker championship banners, I will definitely be wearing my Spurs Five Banners shirt.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

How a coach reads a box score

One of our very strong teams at Claremont opened league play at Redlands one season.  Redlands was running the old Loyola Marymount offense which involved firing up 3 point shots early in shot clock.  That night, those shots went in, and we lost by 10. 
When the coaches got back to locker room after the game, upset with how our team had played, we started examining the box score.  Redlands shot 18 for 25 from the beyond the 3 point line.  Put another way, they had scored 54 points on those 25 shots - the equivalent of shooting 108% from the field, even before factoring in lay-ups and other 2-pointers.  If they had shot 13 for 25 from the 3 point line, a still incredible 52%, we would have won the game by 5.  If they had shot a good but not incredible 10 for 25, 40%, we would have won by 14 - and we would have been much happier with the players.  Put another way, making 8 more threes than a "normal" 3 point shooting percentage of 40% meant 24 additional points for Redlands.
What the box score really told us was when the other team shoots 18 for 25 on their three-pointers, even a good team is unlikely to win that particular game.  The same rule applies to NBA games.  In Game 5 of the 2011 Finals, Mavericks vs. the Heat, the Mavs went 13 for 19 from 3 - the equivalent of shooting 103% on two-pointers. The Mavs won that game to take a 3 - 2 lead.
Since I stopped coaching, I have continued to closely examine box scores after games.  What I look for are not the fairly useless statistics that many national basketball announcers focus on.  Mark Twain famously referred to "lies, damned lies, and statistics" [Editor's note: Twain's put his list in order of increasing evil - jrw].  That applies to basketball too.
A good example of a useless statistic is "total rebounds".  Since the defensive team recovers most missed shots, total rebounds often just reflect which team shot and defended better.  It does not tell us very much about which team actually reboundedbetter.
A much more meaningful statistic to measure rebounding is the percentage of a team's missed shots it recovers through an offensive rebound. The team that rebounded better in that game will be the team that got a higher percentage of its own misses back.
The other side of that coin may even be more meaningful, since (I am told) it more often correlates with winning percentage: The percentage of the other team's misses a defensive team rebounds, thus preventing the other team from getting a second chance to score.
A normal NBA team will get between 25% and 33% of its own misses back as an offensive rebound. 
Watch for offensive rebounding percentages outside of this range.  If a team gets more than a third of its misses back as offensive rebounds, it has rebounded well -- and the opposing team will hear about it after the game, and in the next practice.
This is something you can measure at home. Look at the box score to see how many shots a team missed. (For simplicity, I ignore missed free throws since the defensive team rebounds virtually all missed free throws.)
If a team shoots 40 for 85 from the field, there were 45 misses.  Each miss represented an offensive rebounding opportunity. (I have had many a game where my shooting supplied my team's big guys with many offensive rebounding "opportunities".)  If the offensive team gets 15 or more of those 45 misses back as offensive rebounds, that is very good -- and the opposing coach is upset with his guys.  But if the offensive team gets less than 10 offensive rebounds on those 45 misses, that will make it very hard to win.
Applying this statistic to last year's Finals is telling. In Game Five, the Heat actually had more total rebounds than the Spurs.  As you may recall, the Heat still lost - by a lot.  One reason not mentioned on the air:  The Heat had only 5 offensive rebounds in the entire game, on 45 missed shots.  This was a dreadful "offensive rebound percentage" of 11%.
This was a series-long problem for the Heat, and an important one.  For the Finals, the Heat got an offensive rebound on only 15% of their misses, about half of what a good rebounding team will get.   (The Spurs, generally not a strong offensive rebounding team, were at 23% for the Finals.)  When the Heat missed shots in the 2014 Finals, 85% of the time the Spurs rebounded the ball and could immediately attack, feeding into their offensive dominance.
National announcers also love to mention "points off turnovers".  This statistic tells us virtually nothing.  Unless the turnover is a steal, it is actually harder to score off a turnover than a missed shot.  The turnover that goes out of bounds, or results from a violation or offensive foul, stops the clock and requires the referee to handle the ball. This stoppage allows the defense to retreat and set up, which is the hardest time to score. 
Last year in the NBA, teams shot an effective 61% after live ball turnovers, but only 46% after dead ball turnovers.  While watching the game, watch for live ball turnovers.  Blocked shots that are recovered by the defense (and don't go out of bounds) are similar. They often lead to easy baskets the other way.  (This is also a rarely mentioned problem with the Hack-a-Shaq.  Putting the other team on the free throw line essentially eliminates any chance of a steal or blocked shot and the resulting easy transition basket.) Whatever you do, ignore the "points after turnovers" statistic they throw on the TV screen, since it ignores the crucial distinction between live ball and dead ball turnovers.   
Also be wary of the "4 point swing" announcers love to tout.  This happens when a team misses at one end, and the other team comes down and scores.  We eliminated the center jump after every basket in the 1930s.  The "four point swing" ignores the fact that the other team would have still gotten the ball even if the first team had made the shot. All that being said, total turnovers do matter: Put simply, the team that turns the ball over has a zero percent chance to score on that possession.
Since most teams score about a point per possession, each turnover costs that team about a point. Put another
way, if the Spurs have 10 turnovers in a game, and their opponent has 15, that is generally worth about a five point swing in the final score.  (Of course, since the Spurs are averaging over 16 turnovers per game, having a game with only 10 would be cause for much rejoicing.)
Technical fouls, including those from defensive 3 second violations, matter too. Each is worth about a point too, since normally the team puts their 90% free throw shooter at the line for the free throw. Since teams should shoot about 75% on free throws, any made or missed free throws above or below that 75% line is also a worth about a point. (As an example, Wednesday night the Warriors went 20 for 20 from the line against the Clippers - which is 5 points more than the "expected" 15 for 20. Warriors also went 15 for 25 from 3, which is 15 points more than if they shot a more normal 40% and went 10 for 25. Not coincidentally, the Warriors won.)
Finally, a team's raw shooting percentage can also be misleading, which is why people with better math skills and more time than me have created all-encompassing stats like "true shooting percentage" or "effective shooting percentage".  These new-age numbers factor in free throws percentages, number of times fouled while shooting, and 3 point shooting.  If you have that number, go with it.  If you can't get that, there is a shorthand method you can do at home.  For every three pointer a team made during the game, add ½ of a made shot.  A team that went 40 for 80 shot 50% in raw shooting percentage.  But if it made 10 threes, that is the equivalent of going 45 for 80, which would be 56%.  With that number, the number of free throws shot and a team's free throw percentage, you can get a pretty good idea of which team actually shot better. 
Add the shooting information to the other box score factors discussed above.  This will give you a better idea of why one team won, and the other didn't - certainly a better idea than relying on the meaningless statistics many national announcers like to throw at us.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

What would it look like to "feature" Kawhi?

Coach Gregg Popovich has said that he expects to feature Kawhi Leonardon offense this year, knowing that Father Time will eventually see that the Big Three fade into the sunset as David Robinson did before them. Just as the Admiral's son is enjoying a breakout season at wide receiver for Notre Dame, the Spurs want to put their own young star in a position to do the same.
The Spurs may have difficulty fulfilling this goal because the Spurs offense doesn't feature anyone. When at its best, the Spurs offense doesn't try to get the ball to any particular player.  Instead, the offense gets the ball to whoever on the floor has the best shot. This is a different approach than many teams -- the most notable examples being the Lakers and Kobe Bryant and the Knicks with Carmelo Anthony.
Saying the Spurs don't generally run plays does not mean there the Spurs don't have an offensive scheme.  A play dictates what everyone does, regardless of the defense (much like a football team will call a play, and everyone's role in that play is pre-ordained).  The Spurs run different sets, which basically dictate where the players start out.  Where they go, and where the ball goes, is then determined by how the players read and react depending on what the defense does. The Spurs special skill, honed by the coaching staff over the years, is reading and reacting quicker than other teams - and making the right decisions. Of course, making the shots that flow from those decisions helps too. Good shooters make good coaches. Of course, good coaches make good shooters too -- by getting the shooters good shots, and giving them the freedom to shoot them with confidence.
Keeping in mind that the Spurs rarely call plays at all, let alone for a particular player, what are some ways the Spurs might fulfill their stated goal of featuring their young star?

More playing time

The Spurs manage their players' minutes better than any team in the league.  However, while the Spurs have focused on minimizing the Big Three's minutes, especially in the regular season, Kawhi's minutes can surely go up.  The Spurs' 23-year old star-in-waiting averaged only 29 minutes per game in the regular season last year, down 2 minutes per game from the year prior. To put that in perspective, D-League escapee Kendall Marshall averaged that same 29 minutes per game for the Lakers last year.  Perhaps the Spurs could bump up 23-year old Kawhi's minutes to what 53-year old Dirk Nowitzki played for the Mavs last year -- 33 minutes per game.  Note that Kawhi averaged 32 minutes in the playoffs last year, against top competition. As you may recall, he did just fine.

More run with the second unit

Last year, Kawhi spent more time with the first unit than the season before. When Kawhi plays with the first unit, the ball will naturally be in Tony Parker's hands much of the time. Since TP is one of the best pick and roll players in the world, that is where the ball should be, which means it will not be in Kawhi's massive hands as much. Theoretically, the Spurs could make Kawhi the ball-handler in some pick and roll situations, but I do not expect that to happen.  However, on the second unit, the ball will naturally find its way to Kawhi more often.
This is especially true for the first months of the season with Patty Mils out. While we will be deprived of seeing Mills' "3 from Down Under" shooting until 2015, everyone on the second unit will have more opportunities. If Kawhi sees more time with the reserves, some of those additional scoring and creating opportunities will be his -- and they may come against the lesser defenders that populate most teams' bench units.  Further, while on the second unit, the Spurs could put him in the post more, especially if paired with Boris Diaw and/or Matt Bonner - giving him "close to the basket" opportunities not available when Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitterare on the floor with him.
Some might want Kawhi to become the Manu of the second unit, and while I want Kawhi to look for his opportunities to attack and create more, his looks need to come through the flow of the offense. It is a bit early to toss him the ball with 7 seconds on the shot clock, as the Spurs have done with Manu, and say "Go ahead and create". I would not ask any 23-year old forward to do what a unique talent like Manu has mastered over the years.

Lobs

The other team in L.A., the Clippers, will likely be the Spurs' primary competition in the West, especially until Kevin Durant comes back. The Clippers throw more lobs that anyone in the league and I believe the Spurs throw the least.  Pop has clearly made the decision that the highlight reel fun of the lob pass doesn't justify the practice time and risk of the turnover (or injury), which made this play during Game 5 of the Finals such a shock.  Kawhi may be the one Spur where the odds of completing the pass make it worthwhile, especially with Boris Diaw delivering.

Interestingly, that set play was similar to one we used to run at Claremont. Just as Pop (while at Pomona-Pitzer) may have borrowed it from us, we borrowed it from the Lakers. The Claremont coaches attended a coaching clinic with Pat Riley one summer, and he essentially taught us the Lakers Showtime fast break: Magic at the point, Scott and Worthy on the wings, and Kareem and Rambis either filling the post or trailing. We ran the D-3 version of that break for several years, and the Spurs brought it out of mothballs in Game 5. The back screen for Kawhi was essentially the same screen we would set for our all-conference post player Henry Albrecht -- the same screen the Lakers set on Kareem's man as the last option on the Showtime break. The Spurs ran it against the Heat 30 years later as a set play after a sideline in-bounds. Getting Kawhi opportunities to catch and score on lob passes would certainly help feature him more in the Spurs offense.

Post-ups

In my last piece, I talked about two skills Kawhi added and improved before last season. Once he recovers from his eye condition, it will be interesting to see if Kawhi worked this past summer on adding some post moves, and a counter. For instance, he was shooting an MJ-esque turn-around from the post in the preseason. Most great wing players, from Jordan to Kobe to Lebron, developed a post-up game as they matured. (This includes both scoring from the post, and passing out of the post after defenders are forced to double.) Kawhi should, and probably will, do the same.
One way the Spurs could get Kawhi post-up opportunities would be to have him act as the screener on 1-3 (point guard-small forward) ball screens. If the defense switches, Kawhi could then slide into the post, only now with a point guard trying to defend him.
One thing to keep in mind: Being an effective screener is a skill, and setting great screes takes time and practice.  This is especially true in the Spurs pick and roll attack, which often asks the screener to set one, two or even three ball screens in succession. One of the worst things a screener can do is try to help out the ball handler with a last-minute move into the defender's path, often leading to both a turnover and a foul. In this case it would be an extra foul on the Spurs' key defender. Coaching the screener to remain stationary, despite the temptation to move, is key. Like every player on the Spurs, Kawhi sets screens all game long, but he has spent very little time setting screens on pick and rolls. As smart as he is, he won't become an outstanding screener like Tiago Splitter overnight.

Attitude

I don't know if the Spurs and Kawhi will follow any of the specific possibilities listed above. They may not need to.  Part of what makes a player great is the attitude that he is the best player on the floor. Kawhi already has that attitude on the defensive end. We know he will continue to improve his individual offensive skills -- ball-handling, shooting, and passing -- and as time goes by, Kawhi's mind-set will follow. If there is one thing Pop encourages, it is converting that mind-set to action.
The "Live Look-Ins" into a team's huddles shown on TV are generally meaningless: Every NBA team has a deal with the networks -- you can look into the huddles, but you can't reveal any strategy. However, in the 2013 Finals, there was finally a meaningful look-in, not because there was strategy revealed, but because an attitude was being encouraged. Pop told the second unit (including Gary Neal, who took the advice to heart):
Move the basketball, you are getting great shots, just be confident and let 'em fly. Get your name in the paper.
If Kawhi can master that attitude, he will have plenty of opportunities to see his name in the paper too.