Thursday, June 27, 2013

Logic vs. emotion

KIRK:  Spock, we need to shake things up for Game 5.
SPOCK:  Agreed, Captain.  The Miami Heat scored more points than we did in Game 4.  With all due respect, your strategy of allowing them to shoot wide-open shots proved to be unwise.
MCCOY:  Dammit, Spock, that strategy worked like a charm in Game 3.  And they don’t even play basketball on Vulcan.
SPOCK:  Your insults have no place here, Doctor.  And even though I have no feelings, I still feel a mild distress when I recall that Vulcan is now destroyed.
KIRK:  You know, my gut tells me we need to start Manu.  It may be his last home game, and the crowd will get very emotional if we let him start.  Bones, what do you think?
MCCOY:  Dammit, Jim, I am a doctor, not an assistant basketball coach.
SPOCK:  Captain, it would be illogical to start Mr. Ginobili.  He is shooting 35%, averaging only 7.5324 points per game, and has more turnovers than rebounds.  Frankly, starting a tribble would be more logical.
MCCOY:  Jim, I hate to say it, but old pointy ears is right this time. Manu’s game stinks so bad it would knock a buzzard off a shit wagon.
KIRK:  You are right about that.  Bones, is Manu injured?
MCCOY:  Dammit, Jim, I am a doctor, not a…  uh, actually, I can answer that.  He’s fine.  Just old.
KIRK:  Enough debate.  I’m the captain, we are starting Manu.   If it doesn’t work out, I will answer to Star Fleet.
SCOTTIE (over the intercom):  Captain, you need to get down to engineering!  Danny Green is so hot the warp drive is about to blow!
KIRK:  Sorry, Scottie, nothing we can do.  If we let Danny Green cool down., we don’t have a chance of making it.

·         * * *  * * * *
Epilogue:

MCCOY:  Jim you were right.  Your gut instinct to start Manu worked out perfectly.  Emotion overcame logic once again.  What do you say now, you Vulcan robot?
SPOCK: Doctor, your insults have no place here.  I knew starting Mr. Ginobili was logical.  I have now consulted the Corman Outcome Theory, and it proves the decision was logical – we prevailed.  Indeed, because the Miami Heat had gone small, starting Mr. Ginobili meant the Heat had to try to cover him with Mike Miller, who hasn’t been able to play defense since the Empire was young.  The logic is impeccable.
KIRK:  Mr. Spock, that is a reference to Star Wars, not Star Trek.  And something else is bothering me.  Bones, why is it that you spend all your time standing next to my captain’s chair picking fights with Spock?  Shouldn’t you spend some time in sick bay, at least every once in a while?
SCOTTIE (over the intercom):  Captain!  Danny Green is really hot now.  I can’t keep the ship together much longer!


Back to the fake blog:
Indeed, young Mr. Green has been on fire.  While Mike Miller’s last two games (0 for 1 each game) helped disprove the hot hand theory, Green’s entire series has been stuff for the ages.


I have had nights where I shot like Green.   Everything I throw up, from whatever distance, hits nothing but net.  My teammates recognize I am on fire, and hit with my perfect passes.  Like Green, my footwork is perfect, I catch the ball with both feet already set, so I can immediately rise, release, perfect back spin, swish.  Of course, then I wake up.  Green hasn’t woken up yet.

Before the series, one of the questions I asked was “Who would Lebron cover?”  In the last two games, he has spent a fair amount of time covering young Mr. Green.  And no one could have predicted that.
Something else no one could have predicted is that chubby old Boris Diaw would be covering Lebron.  But he has – and there is a certain logic to it.  Before he got too heavy, Diaw was a guard.  As such, he spent a lot of time covering various perimeter players.  The last few years, as he got heavier, he plays the post, which means he has to defend post players.  He probably covers Duncan a lot in practice, and in the Grizzlies series, covered Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.  Since Lebron has been posting up a lot, putting a post defender on him, with the experience of covering perimeter guys and the length to bother a jumper if he steps out, is very logical.  In the second half, we saw a lot of Diaw on LeBron – even when Kawhi Leonard was also in. One site I saw said that LeBron went 1-for-8 guarded by Diaw.  And that also freed Leonard to cover DWade.  As Spock would say: “Fascinating”.
Other thoughts:
1.      People who criticize Lebron often say he needs to get more aggressive.  “Stop passing the ball and shoot more.”  Manu’s game last night, even if a last hurrah, showed that being aggressive, as Manu surely was, is not either one (shooting) or the other (passing).  Sometimes logic and emotion get to the same result.  Sometime the player just needs to play, and then make the right play.  Manu did that.  As a result, he had a personal 2013 playoff highs 24 points AND 10 assists.
2.      With 4 seconds left in the first half, the Spurs took a 20 second time out to set up a play from the back-court. (Each team gets one 20-second time out, so it was a “use it or lose it” situation.)  Pop set up a play that had Parker take it all the way for a lay-up.  Not unlike this play:

3.      I would be very surprised to see Mike Miller start again.  While the Spurs have to “spread the floor” to cover him, going 0 for 1 in two straight 20+ minute games is pretty terrible. Will they start their 4th best player Ray Allen (4 for 4 from 3, two four-point plays, 20 points) – or go back to a big starting line-up forcing Manu to cover a bigger guy?  Probably not either – my guess is they will resurrect Battier, who has played decently the last two games after not getting any time for several games before that.  This Series has had several remarkable aspects:  One of them is very unusual in any sport – changing starting line-ups in the finals, having guys change from playing 0  minutes to 20, others, like Splitter, going from starting to playing very few minutes, and others, like Birdman and Cory Joseph, going from meaningful back-up minutes to zero.

4.      From ESPN.com game summary, subtly applying the Corman Outcome Theory to the Spurs:
“They were up by as many as 20 in the game. Even though the Heat pulled to within a point in the third quarter, the flow of the game indicated the Spurs were never in jeopardy.”  (Emphasis mine.)

Never in jeopardy?  Is he kidding?  Hell, I was nervous when the Heat cut the lead to 13 with 7 minutes left, and then again when they cut to 9 with under two minutes left.  Never in jeopardy?  Well, I guess the Corman Outcome Theory proved the ESPN writer right – but his article would have been much different if Manu hadn’t scored or assisted on 5 straight trips after the lead was cut to one.

5.      When the second half started, more than half of the seats in the first few rows were totally empty.  I knew Texans like their barbeque, but geez, it was the Spurs last home game of the season, and they were winning.  Get your butts back to your seats.

6.      No one can predict who will win Game 6.   4 of the first 5 games have basically been blow-outs.  Even within those games, the losing teams have gone on 10-0 runs.  Pat Riley always said basketball was a game of runs, and this series has proven that.  I would love Game 6 to be one of those classic play-off games with 20 lead changes, instead of like Game Five, which had NONE. 

Unless the Spurs get out ahead early.  If the Spurs jump out to an early lead, no lead changes would be just fine.

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