It is widely accepted that
winning never feels as good as losing hurts. But maybe that is not always
true.
After winning the NBA
Championship Sunday night, several Spurs went out of their way to say that this
wonderful season, and the way they dominated the Finals, made last year’s loss
OK. Essentially, last year’s defeat gave them a common pain. That
common paid bound the Spurs together in a common goal. They decided to do
everything they could to make this season’s ending different. Perhaps included
in that was the desire to play so well that the Spurs would not lose on the
sort of freak plays that led to the Game Six loss last year – which means not
allowing close games.
As a result of that common goal,
this year’s Spurs crushed teams in the playoffs. It takes 16 wins
to become NBA Champions. In 12 of the Spurs 16 wins, the margin of
victory was 15 or more. The Spurs essentially eliminated the
margin of error that leads to close losses. One missed shot, funky bounce
or bad call (or one Ray Allen step back three from the corner) doesn’t matter
as much when you are winning by 20 points.
Sometimes teams win because of a
fortuitous series of breaks mixed in with good plays. Other times, teams
dominate their opponents. While the first type of win is great, the sense
of satisfaction from the second type of win is priceless. The Spurs after
Game Five surely had the second feeling. They could say “We are the
best” and “We gave it all we had” – and no one who watched this Series
could dispute it.
The Spurs, without preening or
pounding their chests, looked genuinely happy, and that is a very good
thing. They didn’t need to preen or pound their chests. They
could just look up at the scoreboard, laugh, smile, hug and say meaningful
things in each other’s ears. And feel at peace.
Which makes next season’s
betting line interesting. The Heat, who were outscored by 70 in this
five-game series, with everyone relatively healthy and available, are favored
to win it all next year. Ahead of the Spurs. Are the Heat
expected to be better next year, or are the Spurs expected to be worse?
One thing I realized Sunday
night was that while the Spurs are considered to be the “old” team, the Heat
are no spring chickens. When the Heat wanted to shake up their starting
line-up for Game Five, they inserted Ray Allen into the line-up. Yes, 38
year old Ray Allen, who is deciding whether to retire or not. When the
Heat changed their line-up to start the second half of Game Five, they replaced
Rashard Lewis (34) with Birdman (35). Of course, DWade is 32 going on
52. With that in mind, here are the early betting lines for next
season.
2014-2015 NBA
FUTURES
(Courtesy LVH
SuperBook)
Team
|
Odds
|
Heat
|
5-2
|
Thunder
|
9-2
|
Spurs
|
9-2
|
Clippers
|
10-1
|
Pacers
|
12-1
|
Bulls
|
12-1
|
Warriors
|
20-1
|
Rockets
|
20-1
|
Trail
Blazers
|
30-1
|
Wizards
|
30-1
|
And there may be some logic in
that analysis. As with this year, the Heat will have a much easier road
to the Finals next year too. The Spurs, OKC and Clippers will need to
overcome each other, along with other teams who would be top 2 or 3 in the
East: the Blazers, Warriors and Rockets. Who do the Heat need
to worry about in the East? As long as Lebron stays, they will be odds-on
favorites.
But enough about next year – the
Spurs can revel in this moment, in this team, and what they accomplished
now. It will be a much more enjoyable summer than last year.
Other thoughts and stolen stats:
1.
Stolen stats:
“San
Antonio's .528 shooting percentage was an NBA Finals record, but that doesn't
tell the whole story of how well the Spurs shot the ball. They made 55
3-pointers -- more than any team has ever made in a Finals of fewer than seven
games -- and shot them at a 46.6 percent clip.
Effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the additional value of
3s by treating them as 1.5 field goals, does a better job of capturing San
Antonio's efficient shooting. The Spurs' 60.4 percent mark blew away the
previous record (55.5 percent by the 2002 Lakers).”
2.
From my Game
Four recap, talking about how Miami had only 48 points midway through the third
quarter:
“The lead was back to 64 – 48,
and then back to twenty at 68 – 48 halfway through the third. Look at
that second number. 48. 48 points, halfway through the third
quarter, playing at home, in a must-win game in the NBA Finals.”
Who
would have expected that Game Five would be worse – especially after the Heat
scored 29 points in the first quarter? Halfway through the third quarter of
Game Five, Miami had only 42 points – 6 points less than at the same time in
Game Four. And Game Five was an absolute “must win”. Perhaps
the Spurs can also defend. Indeed, I don’t remember the Heat completing,
or even attempting, one of their signature lob passes for a dunk. The
Spurs ran one lob play in the series – a play we used to call “Key”, which Pop
stole from us. Note how the Spurs clear the right side of the floor to
open up the lob pass, one of the few they ever throw.
The Heat had only 42 halfway through the third quarter of
Game Five because the Spurs outscored the Heat 59-22 from 5:04 remaining
in the first quarter until 5:01 left in the third. That is almost exactly
one-half of a game. Which means if the teams played two halves at that
scoring pace, the final score would be 118 – 44.
Yes, 118 – 44.
3. Kawhi
Leonard fouled out of Game Five. I wonder if he is the first Finals MVP
to foul out of the deciding game. Also, people are talking about how he
played much better in the last three games, which all turned into Spurs
blow-outs. Coincidentally, Pop changed the starting line-up in those
games, replacing Splitter with Diaw. Perhaps that change helped
Leonard. It spread the floor and gave him more room to operate – and
added Diaw’s exquisite floor vision and passing ability.
4. Any
guesses as to which Spur played the most minutes Sunday night? Boris
Diaw. In last year’s season ending fake blog, I wrote:
The Spurs
aren’t dead? Not if Green adds another dimension to his game, Kawhi Leonard
keeps up his Finals pace (22/11 in Game Six, 19/16 in Game 7), Parker stays
healthy, and Boris Diaw does the Duncan diet this summer.
It turns out Diaw did enough of the Duncan diet to make my
prediction last year come true. (And Green added another dimension to his
game, Kawhi resumed his 2013 Finals pace in Games Three, Four and Five, and
Parker stayed healthy in the Finals. Interestingly, the last one turned
out to be the least important – Parker played OK, but was never the Spurs best
player.)
5. One
of the best things about winning is that everyone on the winning team can feel
like they contributed. For the Spurs, a remarkable number of their
players contributed in key ways – and not just the big 3, Leonard and Diaw.
Corey Joseph, who barely played in the Finals, helped the Spurs knock off OKC
(in OKC) by playing the first 7 minutes of the second half of Game 6 when
Parker was yanked for overall soreness and noodle ankles. Mario Belinelli
made the huge 3 in Game Three of the Finals after the Heat had cut the huge
lead to only 7 in the third quarter – and came in Sunday night for a quick two
minutes in the second quarter, and made a “pump
fake, step in jumper” as the momentum was switching horses. Patty Mills, after
barely playing in last year’s Finals, was truly great in these Finals.
That included Game Five’s en fuego run demolishing the last
hopes of the Heat. (I really hope the Spurs can re-sign
him.) Tiago Splitter played great defense on Nowitzki and Lamarcus
Aldridge in the first two rounds. Speaking of redemption, Splitter also
exorcised some personal demons from last year’s Finals with this block
(double click on picture for GIF):
Speaking of highlights, I like
this one too.
6.
I would be remiss
not to mention Lebron’s first quarter Sunday night. 17 points/6 boards –
he took the team on his back, and was awesome. He was on a pace to score
68 points with 24 boards. Sounds like something Wilt would do -- but the
burden of carrying this Heat team clearly got too heavy for Lebron.
Lebron
has some huge decisions to make. While I am sure he loves living in Miami
(remember he grew up in Akron), I do not believe he can be enthusiastic about
covering for DWade for the next two years, while Wade collects $20M each year
for playing an abbreviated schedule. Of course, Bosh will collecting the
same amount, though he too is clearly no longer a “max” type player.
Lebron
is also entitled to receive some criticism. The commentators on ABC got
in the habit of using a Pop phrase – don’t let the ball stick. That means
either pass, dribble or shoot – do not just hold the ball. Lebron was
surely the stickiest guy in the Finals. On numerous occasions, the ball
would be in his hands for half of the shot clock, either holding it against a
defender or dribbling it in one spot. The side effect of doing so is that
the other Heat players would stop moving too. (Laker fans have seen this
scenario play out with Kobe many times.) The ball needs to move – when it
moves, players move. (See, e.g., the Spurs.)
7.
In Game Five, the
Heat had 5 offensive rebounds on 45 missed shots, a dreadful 11%. This
was a series long issue, and an important one. For the Series, the Heat
got an offensive rebound on only 15% of their misses. (The Spurs were at
22.5%.) When the Heat missed, 85% of the time the Spurs rebounded the ball and
attacked, feeding into their offensive dominance. (Interestingly, when
Kawhi Leonard rebounds, he almost always pushes the ball up court himself, with
the guards sprinting ahead in order to spot up ahead of him.) Another
facet of the Heat’s lack of offensive rebounding is that they were not giving
themselves second chance opportunities. The lack of offensive rebounding
probably grew out of the lack of ball movement – and the Heat’s decision to go
without anyone who habitually would attack the offensive glass. Lebron,
Bosh, DWade, Lewis, Allen, and Chalmers led the Heat in minutes played.
Do you consider any one of them as a beast on the offensive glass?
8.
From music, soccer and
Playing the Right Way maven Marc Cimino, after Game Five:
Somewhere on that court John
Wooden, Red Holtzman and Dr. Jack were standing side by side with big
smiles. Big win for basketball!
9.
Bad news/Good
news. With 15 seconds left in the 3rd quarter of Game Five,
Tony Parker finally made a basket after starting 0 for 10. The other
starting guard, Danny Green (who otherwise played a great series) did not score
all game. That’s the bad news. The good news? Parker’s basket
put the Spurs up by 21 points.
The
related good news is that Spurs 3rd guard, Patty Mills, scored 17
points in 17 minutes, including this flurry:
5:54
|
|
42-59
|
Patty
Mills makes 25-foot three point jumper (Boris Diaw assists)
|
5:37
|
Chris
Bosh makes layup (LeBron James assists)
|
44-59
|
|
5:28
|
|
44-62
|
Patty
Mills makes 25-foot three point jumper (Manu Ginobili assists)
|
5:09
|
LeBron
James misses 14-foot two point shot
|
44-62
|
|
5:07
|
|
44-62
|
Kawhi
Leonard defensive rebound
|
5:01
|
|
44-65
|
Manu
Ginobili makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)
|
5:01
|
Heat 20 Sec.
timeout
|
5:01
|
Michael
Beasley enters the game for Dwyane Wade
|
44-65
|
|
5:01
|
Mario
Chalmers enters the game for Ray Allen
|
44-65
|
|
5:01
|
Shane
Battier enters the game for Udonis Haslem
|
44-65
|
|
4:39
|
LeBron
James makes jumper
|
46-65
|
|
4:18
|
|
46-65
|
Manu
Ginobili misses 13-foot jumper
|
4:16
|
Michael
Beasley defensive rebound
|
46-65
|
|
4:09
|
Mario
Chalmers makes layup (Michael Beasley assists)
|
48-65
|
|
4:07
|
Spurs Full
timeout
|
3:42
|
|
48-68
|
Patty
Mills makes three point jumper (Tiago Splitter assists)
|
Man, that was fun. The Heat
scored 6 points in 90 seconds (an explosion for them). The Spurs scored
12 on four of five shots over about two minutes -- including 9 points on
3 threes in 53 seconds. (Interesting side-note: Pop called an
“angry time-out” after the Chalmers lay-up which cut the lead to 17. That
time-out led to the final Mills three – “Three from Down Under!!”)
--- (Second side-note: It truly was a Three from Down Under – the
pass was from a Brazilian to an Aussie. )--- (Third side-note:
Am I the only one who notices these things?)
10.
I ended last year’s
finals in a much worse mood. As I said then, losing close hurts more than
losing by a lot, and losing close and badly (like the Spurs did last
year) hurts worst of all.
But I am taking a lesson
from the Spurs -- I am now over that. 2014 has cleared the books on the
2013 Finals.
11.
And like One Shining
Moment at the end of the NCAA Final Four, I will end once again with “My
Favorite Things” (updated from last year):
In the meantime, I will spend
the dog days of summer thinking back on my favorite NBA memories. This
list grew out of a question from masters division hoops multi-time champion
Steve Carlston about my favorite players. In my lawyerly way, I instead
answered the question I wanted to answer – about favorite memories. Like these:
Coop in a defensive stance,
Stephen Curry looking for any opening to shoot a 3, Magic in the middle dishing
this way – no, that way, Patty Mills water-bugging to find himself an open
three, Horry spotting up in the last minute of a playoff game,
Kawhi Leonard D’ing up on LeBron, or Durant, or Westbrook, or whoever else Pop
sends him after, Kyle Korver running around 4 screens to get free for a
catch and shoot 3, Kobe leading an improbable comeback, Manu
dunking on the Heat in Game Five of the Finals, DFish bellying up on a guy
bigger faster quicker and more talented, Boris Diaw as a Swiss Army Knife (or a
French one), Nash dancing around a ball screen, Donald Sterling being forced to
sell the Clippers, Jerry West dribbling hard right and pulling up for a jumper,
Walton rebounding and outletting, Wilt finger-rolling, Parker
tear-dropping, Rick Barry underhanding, Bosh bricking, Dirk step-backing, Earl
the Pearl spin-dribbling, Pistol Pete (or Ricky Rubio)
behind-the-back passing, Kevin Durant nothing-but-netting, Chick Hearn
hyper-ventilating, Dr. J dunking, Popovich angry time-outing, Worthy baseline
spinning, Westbrook attacking, Duncan blocking a shot and controlling it,
Stockton pocket passing, Lebron chasing down a seemingly uncontested breakaway
lay-up – and in honor of this Team Victory: the Spurs making five passes
in six seconds to get a good shot (and then throwing one more pass to
get a great shot).
Yes, these are a few of my
favorite things. So is writing this fake blog. Feel free to suggest your own.
Thanks again for following along.