These are a few things to look
for while you watch the games, and other comments:
1.
The obvious thing to
watch, throughout the series: Tony Parker’s health. Luckily, in
Boris Diaw, the Spurs are the only NBA team with an extra Frenchman. And
for good measure, the Spurs also have the hero of Game 6 against the Thunder
Corey Joseph. He was born in Canada – a country with two official
languages: English and French. The Spurs have one and a half
Frenchmen in reserve. That, my friends, is being prepared.
2.
On a related
subject, I was reading a Spurs article in which new Spurs guard Marco
Bellinelli described how great it was to have Manu on the team, because
sometimes Marco needs to have Manu explain plays and defensive rotations to
Marco in Italian. It’s funny because Manu is from Argentina, not
Italy. Ah, to be multi-lingual.
3
Watch for the teams
“going small”, “going big small” or “going big”: When I was growing
up, which includes up until today, we were always worried about matching up
against teams that were bigger. In high school, that often meant falling
back into a zone and trying to protect the basket. In my Thursday and
Sunday games, it means trying to have enough bigs on each team to keep the
teams balanced. In the NBA now, teams are doing the opposite. They are
“going small” and forcing big guys to try to cover smaller guys spotting up at
the three-point line – and worrying less about the big guys posting up smaller
defenders.
Throughout the regular
season, and first 2 rounds of the playoffs, the Spurs’ preferred line-up had
Tiago Splitter at the five, Duncan at the four. But when Ibaka came back
in Game 3 for the Thunder, and spent Games 3 and 4 hanging around the rim and
blocking shots, Pop countered with a Stretch 4 (Matt Bonner or Diaw) who would
force Ibaka away from the rim. Interestingly, Splitter and Duncan could
defend Ibaka and Kendrick “The Human Illegal Screen” Perkins. Ibaka
is not a true Stretch 4 and Perkins couldn’t score on his honeymoon.
However, Splitter’s own lack of range allowed Ibaka to stay near the rim
when the Spurs had the ball, and muck up the Spurs’ ability to attack the
basket – so it was offense, not defense, that forced the Spurs’ adjustment.
In Games 5 and 6, Splitter and Duncan were never on the floor
together.
Miami
did the same thing to Indiana. After spending most of the season starting
Voldemort (Bosh) and another big (Haslem), Miami switched to having Voldemort
and Rashard Lewis as starters – both capable 3 point shooters – thereby
exposing Indiana’s huge Roy Hibbert’s inability to defend away from the rim.
In the
Finals, will either team return to their bigger line-up, or will they stay
“small”?
Also
remember Miami’s ability to go “big small”, which is what I call it when they
play without a true point guard or center. A team with Lebron or DWade
handling the ball, with Voldemort, Ray Allen and Lewis, has no true bigs and no
true point guard – but has five guys who can spread the floor, attack the rim
and defend everyone on the other team. In the 80s, I attended a lecture
by Pat Riley in which he said his dream team was to have 5 interchangeable guys
like Magic, all 6’7’’ or 6’8’’. The 5 Miami guys I just listed are
close to what Riley described 25 years ago. Interestingly, the Spurs can
go “big small” too – with Manu playing point, with Danny Green, Bellinelli,
Diaw, and Kawhi Leonard also on the floor.
4.
ESPN had a poll – by
states – asking “who do you want to win”? Nationwide, the Spurs “won”
handily. The Spurs were the most popular in Texas (of course), followed
by Massachusetts (Celtic fans upset that Lebron is now on All Time team instead
of Larry Bird), Oklahoma (wishes it were Texas), and Indiana (who the Heat just
beat like a drum). The only state rooting for the Heat is Florida.
Side
note: A prior fake blog, entitled Who Do You Want to Win, was written the
year after the Dallas Mavericks beat the first Miami Big Three team. I
wrote:
Cavs fans lived and died with
Lebron -- and now passionately want Lebron to fail, along with every other
member of the Miami Heat. I always liked Duke, and former Duke star Shane
Battier. Now he is playing with Lebron, and to support my friends from
Cleveland, and because I didn't like the hubris of the Wade, Bosh, Lebron
coupling, I root against the Heat too, along with much of America. In last
year's Finals, everyone outside of South Florida rooted for a team from Texas
owned by Mark Cuban whose star is from Germany against a team whose stars all
represented the USA in the last Olympics.
I find it interesting that 3
years later, most of America continues to root against the Heat – which is now
playing a team that has more non-U.S. born players than U.S. players. Is this a
residual effect from the Decision? Rooting against the Goliath, rooting for the
Spurs -- or something else?
5.
The most important
statistic in determining who wins a particular game is. . . the final
score. However, a hidden stat I have discussed before (and which
newcomers to this fake blog have not previously heard from me) is percentage of
offensive rebounds on a team’s missed shots. A good number for the
offense is above 25 or 30 per cent. Thus, a team that misses 60 shots
from the field would want to get 15 to 18 offensive rebounds. This stat
is much more important than total rebounds, though that is the stat you hear
most.
Another misleading stat
you hear a lot is “points after turnovers”. Turnovers lead to better
scoring opportunities only if they are “live ball turnovers” – primarily
steals. A dead ball turnover – a travel, offensive foul or ball out of bounds, allows the defense
to get set, while a “live ball” turnover does not. The latter often leads to
highlight dunks and three point plays. This year in the NBA, teams
shot an effective 61% after “live ball turnovers”, but only 46% after
dead ball turnovers. For this reason, the “points after turnovers” statistic is fairly
useless if it does not distinguish between live and dead ball
turnovers. While watching the game, watch for live ball
turnovers. Blocked shots that are recovered by the defense (and don’t go
out of bounds) are similar. They often lead to easy baskets the other
way.
6.
All-NBA teams were
just announced: “The Thunder's Kevin Durant
was the lone unanimous selection to the All-NBA First Team, appearing on all
125 ballots. The Heat's LeBron James
garnered 124 first-team votes. The Clippers' Chris Paul, the
Rockets' James
Harden and the Bulls' Joakim Noah also
made the first team.”
Read that again: Lebron
got 124 out of 125 votes -- Who didn’t vote for Lebron James for All-NBA First Team? He
averaged 27 points, 7 boards and 5 assists per game, shot 56% from the
field, and was second team All-Defense. For MVP voting, 123 of the 124 voters
had Lebron first or second. One person had him third. No
one had him 4th or below. How could anyone not have
him as one of the five First Team NBA guys?
7
Speaking of silly
things, the LA Times sports section had an article about the Finals, and of
course mentioned last year’s Finals. The author, who shall remain
nameless here, talking about the Spurs devastating loss in Game 6 last year, said:
“There was a Game 7 two days later, though it almost needed
an asterisk because San Antonio was already a beaten team.”
What a crock. The
Spurs, supposedly a beaten team, were down 1 on the road going into the 4th,
missed a 3 pointer which would have put them ahead with 1:25 left, and
had a Tim Duncan lay-up and follow up tip-in with 46 seconds left that
would have tied the game if either went in – which of course they
didn’t. Two players who actually folded in the last game were Heat starters:
Neither Mike Miller nor Voldemort scored a single point -- Bosh had zero
points and five fouls. Ray Allen, hero of Game 6, also scored zero points
in Game 7. And now a year later this writer describes the Spurs in Game 7
as “already a beaten team”.
I sometimes wonder what
people think about when they write stuff.
(Of course, you may think
the same about some of the stuff I write.)
GO SPURS.
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