One week after the NCAA Selection Sunday, only 16 of the 68
teams are still alive. 52 of the 68 teams have seen their season
end.
One week after the last NBA regular season game, when the
NBA Playoff seedings are finally set, San Antonio will be playing its second
game, the second in up to seven games in the first round in playoffs that will finish in late June.
By the time the Spurs play their second game, the commercial with “Jake, from
State Farm” will have probably played 68 times. And it will still be
confusing.
Of course, the advantage of the NBA playoff format is that
it is much more likely that the best team will win. Any team can beat
another team in a one-game elimination game. In a best of 7 series,
upsets are much more rare.
Who is the best team going in to the playoffs? The
obvious answer is the Spurs. (Did you expect me to say something else?)
This doesn’t mean they are the most likely to be standing at the
end. Because the Spurs have to play more good teams to get through to get
to the Finals than the Heat, the Heat have a significant advantage. Even
without any upsets, the Heat get (1) a Charlotte team that was in the lottery
last year, (2) a Toronto team with no playoff experience, and (3) an Indiana
team that started the season on fire, and has played .500 ball since
then. (After a day skiing in Telluride the first Sunday
in April, super-skier brother Mark and I walked into a pizza and beer place
for, you guessed it, pizza and beer. On the TV was a Pacer-Hawks
game. The Pacers had scored 23 points. At halftime. At
home. At least the pizza and beer were great.)
The Spurs get (1) a 49 win Mavs team, (2) probably the
Harden-Howard Rockets, and (3) either OKC or the Clippers – both of which won
more games than the Heat this year. (One thing I haven’t heard mentioned elsewhere is that OKC and the Clips will both have
home court against the Heat if that is the Finals match-up. The Heat’s
swoon down the stretch may have helped them in the early rounds since they
don’t have to play the Bulls, but may hurt them both against the Pacers and
possibly the 2nd or 3rd teams from the West. So you
don’t have to check, OKC and Clips will have home court against anyone from the
East, the Pacers included.)
Perhaps the easier path to the Finals
is why the ESPN sport nation poll favors the Heat to win it all. 31%
picked the Heat, 29% the Spurs, 19% OKC and 9% Indiana.
That being said, there is much to commend the Spurs. I
saw an interesting analysis based on the teams’ records against other playoff
teams since the All-Star break. In those games, the Spurs were 12-2,
outscoring their opponents by 9 points per game. The other top
teams: Heat 10-9 (+3.4), OKC 7-6 (-0.5), Clips 6-4 (+2.2), and Indiana, a
dreadful 4-11, outscored by 11 per game. (This
analysis was prior to the last Sunday
of the year, where the Pacers beat OKC to effectively clinch best record in the
East – and hopefully started to feel a bit better about themselves.)
Other fun Spurs stats. They are the first team since
the NBA-ABA merger not to have a single player average more than 30 minutes a
game. Compare that to Lebron and Durant, who have averaged about 40
minutes per game for the past 4 years, plus USA team obligations every
summer. The Spurs record on the road was 30-11, five games better than
the second best road team (OKC) and eight games better than the Heat.
Before last year’s playoffs, I ran the following about the
ageless Tim Duncan:
“Amazing stat: Ten years ago, when Duncan was 27 and in his athletic
prime, he averaged 21.3 points, 11.8 boards, 3.6 assists, 2.7 blocks, and
0,6 steals per 36 minutes. This year, while no longer in his athletic prime, he
averaged 21.3 points, 11.9 boards, 3.2 assists, 3.2 blocks, and 0.9 steals per
36 minutes.”
This year, my man Manu’s stats per 36
minutes: 20 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, and 1.6 steals.
His career stats per 36 minutes? 19.5 points, 5 assists, 5
rebounds, 1.8 steals. This from
a player we thought might be toast last year.
Another great Manu stat: When he is on the bench, the
Spurs outscore their opponents by 5 points per 100 possessions. When he
plays, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 13.4 points per
possession. Essentially, as good as any team ever. So, yeah, I am
rooting for Manu, and the Spurs.
Observant Fake Blog readers will notice I haven’t mentioned my
new other team, the Warriors. As some of you may recall, early this
season I went to a game at Staples Center between the Clippers and some guys
wearing the Lakers’ jerseys. I commented:
“I
think I figured out the problem. Normally, when your team picks up a new
player or two, they are playing with 3 or 4 other guys who you have rooted for
in the past. You root for the new guy to support “your” players, and the
new guys magically become your guys too. With this Laker team, No. 7 is
passing the ball to Kaman, who passes it to some guy named Johnson, who
dribbles twice, fakes it to Shawnee, and then passes it to ex-Trojan Nick
Young. Who shoots it, of course. I don’t care about any of those 5
guys!
Knowing this was coming about, I
resolved this summer to see if I could transfer loyalty to a team with guys I
like. The Warriors.
Steph Curry went to Davidson,
where he hung out with the son of Haverford College roommate and soccer legend
Phil Zipin – Phil’s son says Steph is a good guy. He is also a great
shooter, like I dream of being. So that’s one. Laker announcer and
former Laker player Michael Thompson’s son is the other guard, also seems like
a good guy. Also a great shooter. That’s two. Andrew Bogut is
from Australia, and we have 2 great friends from Australia. And he is a
great passer. That is three. Iguadola is a great defender, team
player, seems like a real good guy. That’s four. Harrison Barnes,
now back as 6th man, went to North Carolina, who I normally don’t
like, but Tar Heel legend Bob Bennett is one of the best people in the
world. So that helps. I really liked Warrior great Rick Barry
growing up. And former Claremont player and All-American Chris Greene is
a Warrior fan from way back. That is enough for me. Warriors all
the way, baby!”
Well, it worked. I went to the Warriors – Lakers game last
week with BYU and masters hoop legend Steve. Both of us long-time Lakers
fans rooted for our new favorite player Steph Curry. Along with a bunch
of other Warrior fans walking around Staples in Warrior uniforms. Curry
did not let us down – the first triple double I have seen live since Magic in
the Forum. And as a special Fake Blog gift to you all, here is the Curry
Flurry from last season’s playoffs that really started the Curry frenzy:
Let’s see how the W’s, my new other team (behind the Spurs) hold
up against the Clippers. And, no, even though I am temporarily off the
Lakers bandwagon (which will likely be stuck in the mud for at least 5 years),
I have not been able to jump across onto the Clippers bandwagon just
because they are “local”.
For those of you who believe I need to stay with the Lakers
through thick and thin, I did that once already in the 90s
because I still liked the players. These 2013-2014 Lakers played hard, if
not well or intelligently, but I am not invested with them. Indeed,
neither is Lakers management – most of them were on one year contracts.
It is a bit difficult to become invested in a bunch of guys who were intentionally
designed to be placeholders. Especially if they were placeholders for
guys who I have never liked. Carmelo Anthony, as one example.
Shouldn’t we all root for teams with players we like, not just for
the laundry they wear, or because we share the same zip code?
-------------------------------------------------
For those of you who asked, here is the link to the actual fake
blog, with past entries: http://leesfakeblog.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2013-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&updated-max=2014-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&max-results=22
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