Thursday, June 27, 2013

Missed it by that much



Tuesday night in the College World Series, UCLA beat Mississippi State 8 – 0 to win the NCAA baseball championship.  I don’t think the losing team and their fans are going to have nightmares about the result.  Yes, Mississippi State’s players and fans will be very disappointed, but they won’t wake up in the middle of the night thinking about a bad-hop grounder, a missed call by an umpire, or a decision to throw a curve instead of a fastball.  They got their butts kicked, and they know it.

The Spurs didn’t get their butts kicked, and the Heat know it was a classic and close battle.  You want proof?  The total points scored by the teams over 7 games – Spurs 721, Heat 720.  Even in Game 7, which ultimately was a seven point “blow-out”, the Spurs could have gone up 1 with 1:25 left if Kawhi Leonard made his 3, and could have tied it with 47 seconds left if Duncan made a lay-up he had made 1000 times before.  The bad news – the nightmares.  Especially for Tim Duncan.  “Missed it by that much” is funny in Get Smart, not so funny when it is the difference between two completely different narratives about this series.

Also not as funny as The Cone of Silence – that always cracked me up.  For those of you too young to remember:

The Cone of Silence is one of many recurring joke devices from Get Smart, an American comedytelevision series of the 1960s about an inept spy.
Invented by "Professor Cone", the device is designed to protect the most secret of conversations (aka "C.O.S. security risks") by enshrouding its users within a transparent sound-proof shield. Unfortunately, Control had purchased the device from a "discount place" rather than the federal government, so it has never worked properly. Naturally, this frustrating situation provides fuel for comedy.
Whenever Maxwell Smart ("Agent 86") wants to speak to his boss ("Chief") about a top secret matter, "86" would insist on using the comically defective technology despite being reminded that it never works. The Chief, usually with annoyed skepticism, would press a switch, causing the device to descend from above his desk, surrounding the heads of the two would-be conversers. The awkwardly impractical device appears to be constructed of clear plastic in the shape of a large oblong box with two interconnected inverted bowls on top.
Part of the humor is in the irony that Agent 86 and Chief cannot hear each other clearly, while bystanders outside the Cone of Silence can hear everything they say as well as speak to them. Sometimes the bystander would even act as a relay so that Chief and "86" inside the device could communicate. Often at the end of the labored conversation, Chief would become terribly frustrated and upset as it quickly becomes clear that the Cone of Silence is (as expected) worse than useless. In one episode, when Smart was questioned as to why he insisted on using the Cone, he responded that it was 20 degrees cooler inside.
Variations on the Cone included a portable version, made of two globes for the participants' heads connected by a tube; the "Umbrella of Silence", which supported up to four people, and the "Closet of Silence," into which three people were uncomfortably squeezed. In one occasion where the Cone wasn't even available, Smart convinced the Chief to use the (more efficient) "Coughing Code", where both parties communicate through strategic coughing, despite the Chief's claims that the Coughing Code wasn't used for years due to "too many agents giving each other colds".

Anyway, the point is that losing close hurts more than losing by a lot.  And losing close and badly, like the Spurs did in both Game Six and Game 7, really hurts.  And it also makes the analysis more interesting.  The UCLA – Mississippi State analysis is easy, and boring.  Here, then, is my analysis in this, the final fake blog of this season.  As always, I try to point out stuff that others haven’t noted at all, or haven’t emphasized enough. I will also take advantage of some keen insight from terrific fake blog readers.  Here goes:
1.      By games 6 and 7, the Spurs could no longer push the ball up court.  One of the live look-ins into the Spurs huddle in Game 5 was Pop telling the Spurs to run it up their backs, even after made baskets.  Probably because of Parker’s injury, that pace didn’t happen in either of the last two games.

2.      Probably as a result of point 1, the Spurs assist to basket ratio went to hell.  In the first 5 games of the series, the Spurs had assists on 60% of their baskets, including 68% of their baskets in Game 5 (the Manu game).  In Game 5, the Spurs had 25 assists.  In Games 6 and 7, the Spurs had a total of 26 assists in the two games – and only 38% of their total baskets.  Because (1) they were not pushing the ball at every opportunity, (2) Parker was not explosive off the screen and roll and couldn’t make a jumper, and (3) the Heat were not doubling and were not allowing Danny Green open looks, the Spurs were forced to go one and one – and it wasn’t working nearly as well. 

3.      Interestingly, the Heat’s assist/basket ratio also dropped.  After being between 50% and 68% in the first 6 games, it fell to 39% in the final game.  Which makes sense if you look back at it – the Heat scored primarily when Lebron or Wade faced up on their guys, and made jumpers off the dribble.  As a result, the Heat had only 14 assists in the final game, after never having less than 20 in any of the first 6 games.  And 6 of those assists in Game 7 went to one guy – Battier – who made six 3s without dribbling the ball once.

4.      One other thing people didn’t comment on about Game 7 – just as in Game 6, Miami almost folded down the stretch.  After DWade put them up 5 with a lay-up with 3 minutes left, the Heat did not score for the next 2 ½ minutes!  But after Duncan’s missed post move that would have tied it, Lebron made a jumper to put the Heat up 4 with 27 seconds left, and that was all she wrote.  Would he have made it if the score was tied instead?

5.      Speaking of not getting assists on passes to shooters, Tar Heel legend and lefty sharpshooter Bob Bennett called it immediately after Game 5 – and in particular, this spot-on analysis of former Tar Heel Danny Green:
And Danny Green can't handle the ball and isn't a good passer. He doesn't penetrate well enough to keep the defense honest and isn't quick. Guard him close and he wouldn't get open shots at all.
Turns out the Heat must have been monitoring this fake blog (or they enlisted the NSA which is monitoring all emails).  The Heat did exactly what Bob feared.  The Heat guarded Green closely, and he went 1 for 7 in Game Six and a John Starks-like 1 for 12 in Game 7.  Of course, Scottie was happy, since with Green cooling down, the warp coils did not overheat, and the Enterprise survived.
6.      NBA Championships are often decided by injuries.  At various times through the years, the Celtics lost or didn’t make the Finals partially because of injuries to McHale and Bird, the Pistons lost because of injuries to Dantley and evil Isiah Thomas, and the Lakers lost because of injuries to McAdoo, Worthy, Magic and Scott.  This year, the Thunder lament the loss of Westbrook.  In this series, if the Heat had lost, DWade’s bad knee would have been a factor.  For the Spurs, Tony Parker clearly was not the same after the hamstring injury.  You may not remember, but he said that if this injury happened in the regular season, he would have been out 10 days minimum.  And it showed.  In Games Six , Parker was 6 for 23, and in Game 7, 3 for 12.  This from someone who shot 52% in the regular season.  In some ways, Game 7 was more telling since he wasn’t even able to get shots off to miss them.  Which is probably why Pop sat him at several key times.

7.      Ah, the Big Three.  And I am not talking about Kirk, Spock and McCoy.  Or the Holy Trinity.  If the latter, Voldemort/Bosh would be the Holy Ghost – I wrote at halftime of Game 7 “Where is Bosh?”.  I later figured out he was showing solidarity with the Heat “fans” who left early in Game Six and weren’t allowed back in the gym.  Served them right.  After the game, Voldemort said those fans should stay home for Game 7 – and he then did the same.  Zero points, 5 fouls.  I don’t know if this is a record, and it probably is, but the Heat had two starters, Voldemort and Miller, who went scoreless in a Game 7 their team won.

8.      And the hero of Game Six, Ray Allen, also went scoreless in Game 7, something pointed out byWisconsin cheese head and all-around good guy Brian Appel:
One nit I’d like to pick.  Ray Allen may very well be the best three point shooter in history statistically, but I’ve always felt that title missed the words “during the first three quarters.”  Not a clutch guy at all and the big shot he made the other night was the first clutch shot I remember him making.  I would love to know his fourth quarter stats in playoff games relative to his stats in the first three quarters, and would love to know his overall and fourth quarter stats in deciding games.  In fact, I believe that he did not score a point in Game 7.

9.      That being said, here is Allen after his game-tying, legacy-saving 3, referring to the premature setting up of ropes in prep for the Spurs ring ceremony  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjChqJvY4SA&feature=player_embedded


10.  One apology from me.  After Scoreless Mike Miller made that stupid 3 in Game Six while wearing only one shoe, in my Game Six fake blog I called it a Dr. Seuss shot – but I referred to it as “having one shoe and one shoe off”, leaving out the “on”.  Damn, that would have been funny if I did it right:  “One shoe on, one shoe off”.  I was, or course, harkening back to “My shoe is off. My foot is cold. I have a bird I like to hold.”   Dr. SeussOne Fish, Two Fish, Red Fish, Blue Fish   For those who missed it, here is Miller’s Dr. Seuss shot:



11.   My Man Manu is rightfully getting a hard time for his 8 turnovers in Game 6, followed by 4 in Game 7.  What is especially bad is that he entered the fourth quarter of Game 7 with no turnovers – and I probably jinxed him by mentioning that fact when I checked the box score going into the fourth.  My bad.  If Manu does retire, and I hope he doesn’t, we will miss passes that only Manu would think of throwing – like this one:  http://i.imgur.com/8FEMmy4.gif

12.   I don’t normally link to entire articles, but just this once. Joe Posnanski’s excellent (and fairly short) take on my Man Manu, though it misses one key fact – how hard the guy plays:

13.   Unfortunately, Manu is going the way of all athletes – aging.  As aptly described by Haverford College soccer great and astute basketball observer Phil Zipin, perhaps channeling Manu’s plight:

I played this morning. Guarded a 20 something kid with ups, speed, and in a lot better shape than me.  Not fun for me.  Afterwards, as I sat on the bench, exhausted, I said "I can play lousy defense or I can play lousy offense.  But I can't do both."  

             Phil’s line is funnier than my personal favorite fake blog moment:

MCCOY:  Jim, I hate to say it, but old pointy ears is right this time. Manu’s game stinks so bad it would knock a buzzard off a shit wagon.
KIRK:  You are right about that.  Bones, is Manu injured?
MCCOY:  Dammit, Jim, I am a doctor, not a…  uh, actually, I can answer that.  He’s fine.  Just old.


14.   So until next year’s Finals, which I can positively say might be between the Heat, Pacers or Bulls from the East and the Thunder, Grizzlies, or Spurs from the West.  The Spurs aren’t dead?  Not if Green adds another dimension to his game, Kawhi Leonard keeps up his Finals pace (22/11 in Game Six, 19/16 in Game 7), Parker stays healthy, and Boris Diaw does the Duncan diet this summer. And they may need to keep Splitter, to spell Duncan during the season, and defend Roy Hibbert in the 2014 NBA Finals – you read it here first.

15.   In the meantime, I will spend the dog days of summer thinking back on my favorite NBA memories.  This list grew out of a question from masters division hoops multi-time champion Steve Carlston about my favorite players.  In my lawyerly way, I instead answered the question I wanted to answer – about favorite memories.  Like these:

Coop in a defensive stance, Stephen Curry looking for any opening to shoot a 3, Horry spotting up in the last minute of a playoff game, Kyle Korver running around 4 screens to get free for a catch and shoot 3, Kobe leading an improbable comeback, Manu sprinting back to defense after a wacky drive, Magic in the middle dishing this way – no, that way, Nash dancing around a ball screen, DFish bellying up on a guy bigger faster quicker and more talented, Jerry West dribbling hard right and pulling up for a jumper, Walton rebounding and outletting, Wilt finger-rollingParker tear-dropping, Rick Barry underhanding, Bosh bricking, Earl the Pearl spin-dribbling, Pistol Pete behind-the-back passing, Kevin Durant nothing-but-netting, Chick Hearn hyper-ventilating, Worthy baseline spinning, Duncan blocking a shot and controlling it, Stockton pocket passing and, yes, Lebron chasing down a seemingly uncontested breakaway lay-up.  

Yes, these are a few of my favorite things.  So is writing this fake blog.  Thanks again for following along.

This is the End

Not realizing the irony until this moment, my lovely wife and I decided to see the new Seth Rogen movie “This Is the End” tonight.  This is also the first night of the “no more NBA hoops” wasteland that is summer and fall.  It is also the end of the fake NBA Finals blog I have been writing for this season.  Thanks to all of you who took the time to read it.  I enjoyed writing it – I even found that writing about Game Six was somehow cathartic and made that game a bit less painful.

Special thanks to those who found the time to comment on the fake blog.  For instance, leader of men and future senior tour golfer Tim Hayes had this to say in response to my comment wondering why we care about strangers playing a game 3000 miles from L.A.:

“I can remember the Celtics beating the Lakes for the title, one year during the 80's and doing the same thing...going for a walk and looking at the stars, trying to think of all the reasons why it didn't matter. But there were no reasons...because it does matter. We humans are passionate about all kinds of things...it's what makes life livable...I believe those who don't lose sleep when their passions take a beating (or, God forbid, have no passions worth losing sleep over) are missing out on an important piece of life. Just think, if we didn't feel that way, we wouldn’t be able to 'feel the pain' for others...now that would be terrible.”

Similarly, former Princeton play by play master Glenn Dryfoos reminded me of all the great things that led up to the Finals:

“I love all this overheated talk of legacies and heroes and goats….so much of the outcome just comes down to dumb luck….in this case, the 2 long rebounds that led to the LeBron and Ray 3’s….they just took crazy bounces…any normal rebound would have ended up in the hands of a Spur or a surrounded Heat player….

Really a fun playoffs….besides a great Finals, we had nice runs from the Warriors (remember when Stef and Jack through a legitimate scare into the Spurs?...seems like a long time ago), and the Griz, and Pacers (just played their guts out against Miami and introduced Paul George John Ringo to the world)….and the whole Danny Green thing….much better than the NCAA’s…..”

As a former college hoops coach who loves March Madness, and having attended 8 Final 4s, it would have been sacrilege before these playoffs to describe any NBA playoffs as better than March Madness – this year Glenn was right.

Thanks also to those of you who took the time to read whatever stuff I threw out there, decided to like it, and more importantly to me, told me about it.  Even a friend who is generally more like Mikey in the old Life Cereal ad “Give it to Mikey, he never likes anything” but liked the fake blog enough to stun me by saying:

“I hope at least one person besides me tells you how well written, entertaining, informative,  and just plain outstanding these commentaries are!!!”

As the Cowardly Lion so eloquently said – Ah, shucks.  

So thanks again to all – and I just decided this one won’t be the end.  I need to have the catharsis of some actual analysis of the playoffs, more than I can supply at the moment.  You know, I need to let stuff percolate a bit.  Sometime next week, after I have recovered from the Game Six and Game Seven defeats, I will try to throw something together for the actual end:  The actual last fake blog of the season.  

This isn’t it.

It may always be known simply as "Game Six"

L.A. playground hoops legend and all-around good guy Mike Ross was nice enough to email me this afternoon asking if I was OK after last night’s ending.  My response:

Took a walk last night, looked at the stars, wondered why we care so much about a bunch of strangers 3000 miles away playing a game that doesn’t affect our lives in the slightest.

Then had trouble sleeping.”

The ending of Game Six brought to mind a fake blog from last year, right after the Lakers had painfully given away the OKC Thunder series no one thought the Lakers could win, but almost did.  Under the fake blog caption “Comebacks are always described as thrilling”, I wrote:

“Comebacks are always described as "thrilling" -- and for Laker fans, they traditionally have been.  The first Kobe-Shaq championship was triggered by an epic and thrilling 4th quarter, Game 7 comeback against a powerful Trailblazer team.  The Lakers' latest championship  happened because they made a thrilling 4th quarter, Game 7 comeback against the hated Celtics.  Countless other times over the last decade, Laker fans enjoyed comebacks punctuated by Robert Horry 3s, DFish's 0.4s, Pao tip-ins, and Kobe theatrics -- all of which were thrilling. 

We learned this past week that being on the wrong side of a comeback is anything but thrilling. 

Laker fans have been spoiled -- when the Lakers have lost in the past decade, they have gotten blown out.  Suns in Game 7, Celtics in Game 6 in Boston, Dallas last year.  While those were humiliating and embarrassing, they were not devastating or heart-breaking.  Nothing is as bad as having the win in hand, thinking "we about to win the series", "we are about to take home-court advantage", "we are about to even the series" -- and then blowing the big lead, every player blaming himself for that one play -- the missed free throw, the turnover, the brick, and every fan knowing they jinxed the team by having those "what we will do when we win" thoughts too soon.  To all of you Celtics, Spurs, Mavs, Suns, Kings fans who have been on the wrong side of Laker comebacks:  I feel your pain. 

On second thought, strike the reference to any sympathy to Celtics fans --  you deserve all you get.  See, for instance,  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fySp51bhsQ

Contrary to last year’s caption, most of the descriptions of last night’s ending used the word “devastating” instead of “thrilling”.  While it was an indisputably great game, maybe the best ever, the conversation today centered on the Spurs (and Duncan) being on the cusp of the Championship but having it snatched away, instead of the thrilling nature of the comeback.  That might be because the Heat didn’t play that well at the end, and the Spurs didn’t play that badly.  Instead, the basketball gods allowed Lebron’s first bricked 3 at0:23 to miss so badly it became a scrum on the ground which Miller then shuffled back to Lebron, Kawhi Leonard then barely missed his first free throw even though he shot it well (one of many Spurs’ shots that just barely rolled out), and Lebron’s second bricked 3 at 0:07 went directly to Bosh, who then flicked it to Ray Allen for the clutchest 3 ever.  A lesser team would have folded the and there – the Spurs didn’t, had the lead in OT, and fell just short.

Here is the video of the Ray Allen shot.  Note four things.  First, as Bosh is getting the rebound, Allen is already back-pedaling to the corner. Second, despite the commentary this morning that the Spurs should have fouled Bosh once he got the rebound, no one is really close enough and Bosh gets rid of it instantly.  Third, watch Lebron at the top of the key, signaling 3 virtually before Allen lets it go.  Fourth, despite the criticism of Pop for not having Duncan in the game to get that rebound, the Spurs were switching all screens, which meant that the Spur who took Duncan’s place (Boris Diaw) was 25 feet from the hoop contesting Lebron’s shot – and doing it well!   Diaw (or Duncan if he was in the game instead) was anywhere near Bosh when he rebounded the ball – which the basketball gods sent directly to him so he could deliver it to the best 3 point shooter in history.


After the game, I understand Duncan graciously said that Lebron willed his team to win.  The outcome drives the narrative.  If any of the Spurs’ earlier shots had rolled in instead of out, or Manu made two free throws instead of one with 28 seconds left, or Leonard’s first free throw had been as pure as his second (making the lead 4 instead of 3) with 19 seconds left, or either one of Lebron’s twomissed threes had bounced off the rim just a little bit different, or Ray Allen wasn’t smart and talented enough to back pedal and make that damn 3, the narrative would not have been about Lebron’s “will to win”.

Instead, fairly or not, people would have forgotten about his tremendous first 10 minutes of the fourth quarter.  People would have instead focused instead on his two turnovers and two missed 3s in the last minute of regulation.  And the words in the stories wouldn’t have been “the last minute of regulation” – they would have been describing “the last minute of Miami Heat’s season”.  Here is that last 40 seconds:

0:39
91-89
LeBron James lost ball turnover (Kawhi Leonard steals)
0:37
93-89
Ray Allen shooting foul (Manu Ginobili draws the foul)
0:37
Manu Ginobili makes free throw 1 of 2
92-89
0:37
Manu Ginobili makes free throw 2 of 2
93-89
0:28
93-89
LeBron James bad pass (Manu Ginobili steals)
0:28
94-89
Ray Allen personal foul (Manu Ginobili draws the foul)
0:28
Manu Ginobili misses free throw 1 of 2
93-89
0:28
Spurs offensive team rebound
93-89
0:28
Manu Ginobili makes free throw 2 of 2
94-89
0:28
Heat 20 Sec. timeout
0:28
94-89
Mike Miller enters the game for Chris Bosh
0:28
Boris Diaw enters the game for Tim Duncan
94-89
0:23
94-89
LeBron James misses 26-foot three point jumper
0:22
94-89
Mike Miller offensive rebound
0:20
94-92
LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Miller assists)
0:20
Spurs Full timeout
0:20
Tim Duncan enters the game for Boris Diaw
94-92
0:19
94-92
Mike Miller personal foul (Kawhi Leonard draws the foul)
0:19
Kawhi Leonard misses free throw 1 of 2
94-92
0:19
Spurs offensive team rebound
94-92
0:19
94-92
Chris Bosh enters the game for Mike Miller
0:19
Boris Diaw enters the game for Tim Duncan
94-92
0:19
Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 2
95-92
0:07
95-92
LeBron James misses 26-foot three point jumper
0:06
95-92
Chris Bosh offensive rebound
0:05
95-95
Ray Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Bosh assists)
0:05
Tim Duncan enters the game for Boris Diaw
95-95
0:00
Tony Parker misses 12-foot two point shot
95-95
0:00
Spurs offensive team rebound
95-95
0:00
End of the 4th Quarter


Other thoughts:

1.       All points count the same.  Mike Miller made a 3 pointer in the fourth quarter with one shoe and one shoe off.  The Spurs lost because of a damn Dr. Seuss shot.

2.      While I defend Pop for not having Duncan on the floor for that last rebound in regulation (right or wrong, it didn’t matter), I thought having Splitter on the floor for the last desperation shot by Green was a mistake.  Splitter set a good screen on Green’s man – but Bosh immediately left Splitter to go block Green’s shot.  I would have had Matt Bonner setting that screen instead of Splitter -- I don’t think Bosh would have been as willing to leave Bonner to go after Green.

3.      Green did not shoot as well, partially because Miami did what they promised and didn’t leave him open (except for one fourth quarter corner three that he just missed). But several times in this series he has snuffed out what all season had been an unstoppable force –Lebron on a one on one break, with only one defender.  I thing the reason Green can do that is he spent his rookie year on the Cavs, and probably knows what Lebron does in that situation as well as anyone.

4.      Interesting stat I stole:  For the series, the Heat have scored 131.7 points per 100 possessions when James is on the floor without Wade, and just 100.8 when the two have shared the floor, per NBA.com.  As good as Wade was in Game 4, the Heat spacing is much better when one of the shooters is one the floor instead.  Tough decision for Spoelstra  when he sees the box score and notes that the Heat were minus 15 on the floor.  Same thing with Pop – Spurs were minus 21 with my man Manu.  Game 7 maycome down to which former star can repeat his one good game in the series.

5.      The Spurs don’t have to play perfectly to win Game 7.  Hell, they could have and should have won this game with Manu becoming the bug instead of the windshield (8 ugly turnovers, if we count the one at the end where he was fouled going to the hole), Parker shooting 6 for 23 (maybe the hamstring is bad), and Green making only one 3 pointer after making 5 per game coming in. 

6.      Will the Spurs fold after this devastating loss?  They didn’t fold after that last minute from hell.  I hope Pop had them all take a walk after “Game Six”, and look up at the stars.  Not that it helped me much.

Logic vs. emotion

KIRK:  Spock, we need to shake things up for Game 5.
SPOCK:  Agreed, Captain.  The Miami Heat scored more points than we did in Game 4.  With all due respect, your strategy of allowing them to shoot wide-open shots proved to be unwise.
MCCOY:  Dammit, Spock, that strategy worked like a charm in Game 3.  And they don’t even play basketball on Vulcan.
SPOCK:  Your insults have no place here, Doctor.  And even though I have no feelings, I still feel a mild distress when I recall that Vulcan is now destroyed.
KIRK:  You know, my gut tells me we need to start Manu.  It may be his last home game, and the crowd will get very emotional if we let him start.  Bones, what do you think?
MCCOY:  Dammit, Jim, I am a doctor, not an assistant basketball coach.
SPOCK:  Captain, it would be illogical to start Mr. Ginobili.  He is shooting 35%, averaging only 7.5324 points per game, and has more turnovers than rebounds.  Frankly, starting a tribble would be more logical.
MCCOY:  Jim, I hate to say it, but old pointy ears is right this time. Manu’s game stinks so bad it would knock a buzzard off a shit wagon.
KIRK:  You are right about that.  Bones, is Manu injured?
MCCOY:  Dammit, Jim, I am a doctor, not a…  uh, actually, I can answer that.  He’s fine.  Just old.
KIRK:  Enough debate.  I’m the captain, we are starting Manu.   If it doesn’t work out, I will answer to Star Fleet.
SCOTTIE (over the intercom):  Captain, you need to get down to engineering!  Danny Green is so hot the warp drive is about to blow!
KIRK:  Sorry, Scottie, nothing we can do.  If we let Danny Green cool down., we don’t have a chance of making it.

·         * * *  * * * *
Epilogue:

MCCOY:  Jim you were right.  Your gut instinct to start Manu worked out perfectly.  Emotion overcame logic once again.  What do you say now, you Vulcan robot?
SPOCK: Doctor, your insults have no place here.  I knew starting Mr. Ginobili was logical.  I have now consulted the Corman Outcome Theory, and it proves the decision was logical – we prevailed.  Indeed, because the Miami Heat had gone small, starting Mr. Ginobili meant the Heat had to try to cover him with Mike Miller, who hasn’t been able to play defense since the Empire was young.  The logic is impeccable.
KIRK:  Mr. Spock, that is a reference to Star Wars, not Star Trek.  And something else is bothering me.  Bones, why is it that you spend all your time standing next to my captain’s chair picking fights with Spock?  Shouldn’t you spend some time in sick bay, at least every once in a while?
SCOTTIE (over the intercom):  Captain!  Danny Green is really hot now.  I can’t keep the ship together much longer!


Back to the fake blog:
Indeed, young Mr. Green has been on fire.  While Mike Miller’s last two games (0 for 1 each game) helped disprove the hot hand theory, Green’s entire series has been stuff for the ages.


I have had nights where I shot like Green.   Everything I throw up, from whatever distance, hits nothing but net.  My teammates recognize I am on fire, and hit with my perfect passes.  Like Green, my footwork is perfect, I catch the ball with both feet already set, so I can immediately rise, release, perfect back spin, swish.  Of course, then I wake up.  Green hasn’t woken up yet.

Before the series, one of the questions I asked was “Who would Lebron cover?”  In the last two games, he has spent a fair amount of time covering young Mr. Green.  And no one could have predicted that.
Something else no one could have predicted is that chubby old Boris Diaw would be covering Lebron.  But he has – and there is a certain logic to it.  Before he got too heavy, Diaw was a guard.  As such, he spent a lot of time covering various perimeter players.  The last few years, as he got heavier, he plays the post, which means he has to defend post players.  He probably covers Duncan a lot in practice, and in the Grizzlies series, covered Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.  Since Lebron has been posting up a lot, putting a post defender on him, with the experience of covering perimeter guys and the length to bother a jumper if he steps out, is very logical.  In the second half, we saw a lot of Diaw on LeBron – even when Kawhi Leonard was also in. One site I saw said that LeBron went 1-for-8 guarded by Diaw.  And that also freed Leonard to cover DWade.  As Spock would say: “Fascinating”.
Other thoughts:
1.      People who criticize Lebron often say he needs to get more aggressive.  “Stop passing the ball and shoot more.”  Manu’s game last night, even if a last hurrah, showed that being aggressive, as Manu surely was, is not either one (shooting) or the other (passing).  Sometimes logic and emotion get to the same result.  Sometime the player just needs to play, and then make the right play.  Manu did that.  As a result, he had a personal 2013 playoff highs 24 points AND 10 assists.
2.      With 4 seconds left in the first half, the Spurs took a 20 second time out to set up a play from the back-court. (Each team gets one 20-second time out, so it was a “use it or lose it” situation.)  Pop set up a play that had Parker take it all the way for a lay-up.  Not unlike this play:

3.      I would be very surprised to see Mike Miller start again.  While the Spurs have to “spread the floor” to cover him, going 0 for 1 in two straight 20+ minute games is pretty terrible. Will they start their 4th best player Ray Allen (4 for 4 from 3, two four-point plays, 20 points) – or go back to a big starting line-up forcing Manu to cover a bigger guy?  Probably not either – my guess is they will resurrect Battier, who has played decently the last two games after not getting any time for several games before that.  This Series has had several remarkable aspects:  One of them is very unusual in any sport – changing starting line-ups in the finals, having guys change from playing 0  minutes to 20, others, like Splitter, going from starting to playing very few minutes, and others, like Birdman and Cory Joseph, going from meaningful back-up minutes to zero.

4.      From ESPN.com game summary, subtly applying the Corman Outcome Theory to the Spurs:
“They were up by as many as 20 in the game. Even though the Heat pulled to within a point in the third quarter, the flow of the game indicated the Spurs were never in jeopardy.”  (Emphasis mine.)

Never in jeopardy?  Is he kidding?  Hell, I was nervous when the Heat cut the lead to 13 with 7 minutes left, and then again when they cut to 9 with under two minutes left.  Never in jeopardy?  Well, I guess the Corman Outcome Theory proved the ESPN writer right – but his article would have been much different if Manu hadn’t scored or assisted on 5 straight trips after the lead was cut to one.

5.      When the second half started, more than half of the seats in the first few rows were totally empty.  I knew Texans like their barbeque, but geez, it was the Spurs last home game of the season, and they were winning.  Get your butts back to your seats.

6.      No one can predict who will win Game 6.   4 of the first 5 games have basically been blow-outs.  Even within those games, the losing teams have gone on 10-0 runs.  Pat Riley always said basketball was a game of runs, and this series has proven that.  I would love Game 6 to be one of those classic play-off games with 20 lead changes, instead of like Game Five, which had NONE. 

Unless the Spurs get out ahead early.  If the Spurs jump out to an early lead, no lead changes would be just fine.